Chicago Bears At New York Giants: Week 4 Prediction

Nobody expected the Chicago Bears to be 2-1 with September coming to a close. Yet here they are. Despite some obvious struggles along the way, they’ve put themselves in a favorable position as their schedule (on paper) appears to ease for a few weeks with some winnable games. They already took care of business against the Texans. Now they’ll head to New York against a Giants team fresh off a dispiriting loss on Monday night.

One would think Bears fans are ecstatic. Yet their enthusiasm has been unmistakably subdued. It isn’t hard to pinpoint why. Having the worst passing game in the NFL can make even wins difficult to watch. Head coach Matt Eberflus has done a great job navigating this issue, but it’s not something that can likely be overcome over 17 games. Will the Bears be able to figure this problem out before it becomes inescapable?

Chicago Bears seek their third victory of the year

Backstory:

Two teams that are deeply flawed in many ways but have found a way to reach the season’s quarter mark with winning records. Both are doing it the same way too. By running the ball and playing good defense. It is also interesting that the Bears and Giants have new GMs and head coaches with struggling quarterbacks. That makes this game a fascinating case study in different approaches. New York will have the homefield advantage, but Chicago will have had extra time to rest and prepare. While nobody considers either team genuine playoff contenders, this game could likely determine that possibility.

Injuries:

Sterling Shepard (knee) – The Giants have the 30th-ranked passing attack in the NFL thus far. So try to imagine losing your most productive wide receiver amidst that misery. That happened in New York. Shepard leads the team with 156 receiving yards but exited the Monday night loss to Dallas with a severe left knee injury. He is almost certainly out against the Bears next weekend and could be out for the season. It is a brutal loss considering their other top targets are also nicked up.

MetLife Stadium turf strikes again…It needs to go!!! 🙏 out to Sterling Shepard. pic.twitter.com/XxVxXEYUvY

— ACL Recovery Club (@ACLrecoveryCLUB) September 27, 2022

Jaylon Johnson (quad) – Chicago’s secondary held up reasonably well against Houston last week, but there were instances where they clearly missed their best cornerback. Johnson suffered his injury during practice last week. He admitted he isn’t sure if he will play on Sunday. Much of that depends on how he feels leading up to the game. Having him back would be a massive boost for the defense in a pivotal road game.

Key matchups:

Robert Quinn vs. Evan Neal – The Giants’ offensive line has allowed 13 sacks through three games this year. Daniel Jones has taken a beating. Rookie tackle Evan Neal is a big reason why. Opponents have exploited his inexperience thus far as he leads the team in pressures allowed. Quinn is a savvy veteran who knows almost every trick in the book. If the Bears can get him one-on-one with Neal in this game, it’s a matchup they can exploit.

Cole Kmet vs. Tae Crowder – New York’s pass defense has played relatively well to start the year. That said, they’ve struggled to cover up certain weaknesses. One of them is linebacker Tae Crowder who allowed eight catches on nine targets through the first two games, including a touchdown. Kmet showed life against Houston, making two grabs for 40 yards. He was open on several other plays too. This is an opportunity they should be able to seize.

X-factors:

Khalil Herbert – New York has the 25th-ranked run defense in the NFL. Dallas ripped through them for 176 yards on Monday night. The Chicago Bears rank 2nd in rushing, with Herbert cracking 150 on the ground with two scores last week. Giants defensive tackle Leonard Williams was sorely missed, and he might not be available Sunday due to an MCL sprain. If the Bears stick to running the football, they should have success.

Don Martindale – Justin Fields is struggling. A lot. What makes it worse is things didn’t go well the last time he faced Martindale. The veteran defensive coordinator held him to 4-of-11 passing for 70 yards before the quarterback was knocked out of the game with an ankle injury. Martindale is notorious for his aggressiveness and exotic coverages. Fields hasn’t handled either of those things particularly well of late. He better learn fast.

Prediction: Giants win 20-16

This is going to be an ugly game. Both teams should be able to run the football. It comes down to which one makes fewer mistakes in the passing game. As lukewarm as Daniel Jones has been thus far, he’s been better than Fields. That is an inescapable fact. Unless the Bears quarterback finds a way to overcome his current funk, they won’t likely repeat what they managed to pull off against Houston.