Chicago Bears At Minnesota Vikings: Week 5 Prediction

The Chicago Bears are 2-2. It’s not like their season is already dead. Yet based on the reaction of fans, it might as well be. Their offense has looked lost for almost a month. Their defense has deep-rooted flaws that can’t be fixed until at least next off-season. Head coach Matt Eberflus and his staff are trying to work around a problem that began long before they even arrived. It is a matter of doing what they can with what they have.

They’re about to confront a Minnesota Vikings team leading the NFC North after a 3-1 start. They remain undefeated at home and possess one of the best offenses in the league. It is a tough matchup in every sense. Then again, the Bears have already been known to pull off upsets this year. Maybe they have another one in them.

Chicago Bears need lots of luck up in Minnesota.

Backstory:

It’s a weird feeling that the Bears will visit Minnesota early in the season for once. It feels like they always end each year in that dome. Needless to say, this might be the most crucial game of the season for Chicago. Their schedule looks brutal, with three road games in four weeks. Losing to the Vikings would put them at 0-2 in the division and likely kill what little chances they had of being a factor in the playoff chase. Minnesota has homefield and the talent advantage almost across the board.

Injuries:

Jaylon Johnson (quad) – The Bears have survived life without Johnson for the past two weeks, but they aren’t playing second-rate QBs like Davis Mills and Daniel Jones anymore. Kirk Cousins is playing some of his best football and has several weapons at his disposal. Johnson missed practice again on Thursday, putting his odds of playing low. Chicago is dangerously thin at cornerback, and worse still, their pass rush hasn’t stepped up in the past two weeks either.

Za’Darius Smith (knee) – Smith will likely play on Sunday. He’s been limited in practice with a knee problem, though. So it’s difficult to know for sure how effective he’ll be. He’s been their most effective pass rusher thus far. His not generating pressure may open up some opportunities against that iffy Vikings pass defense—something to watch, knowing how troubling the Bears’ pass protection has been.

Key matchups:

Sam Mustipher vs. Dalvin Tomlinson – It isn’t even clear if Mustipher will start at center this week. The Chicago Bears hinted changes might be coming after his disastrous showing in New York, where he gave up six pressures on the quarterback. If he does play, then stopping Tomlinson is a must. He’s been the Vikings’ most consistent interior pass rusher. Slowing him down would finally enable the Bears to form actual pockets.

Sam Mustipher, my goodness. He gets beat like he's not even there.#Bears can't even run Mesh and hold the pocket through Fields' drop. Make sure you watch the end-zone angle here — 97's in the backfield in ~2 seconds pic.twitter.com/003HIfICvG

— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) October 4, 2022

Justin Jefferson vs. Kyler Gordon – With Johnson out, it falls to the Bears’ embattled rookie corner to help slow down the best wide receiver in football. Gordon has struggled a lot through the first month of the season. He’s given up too many big plays. There is no doubt Minnesota will work hard to get Jefferson matched up with him as often as possible. If the 2nd round pick folds, the Bears aren’t likely to win the game.

X-factors:

Justin Fields – Teams have figured out how to play the Bears. Load the box to stop the run and make Fields beat them. Thus far, he hasn’t been able to do it. Minnesota is going to score points in this game. It’s an inevitability. If Chicago has any prayer of pulling the upset, they need their young quarterback to step up. The Vikings showed they’re vulnerable to mobility against Jalen Hurts. Fields must force them to account for everything.

Dalvin Cook – It isn’t rocket science. The Bears have the worst run defense in the NFL by a country mile. They’ve allowed 176 rushing yards or more in three of their first four games, including 262 in New York. Cook is averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per carry this season. There is no question the Vikings will look to get him going early. The worst thing the Bears need is facing those receivers off play action.

Prediction: Vikings win 31-14

Too many things are working against the Chicago Bears in this game. Their secondary is depleted, and they still can’t stop the run. Offensively they just don’t have the firepower to keep pace with the Vikings. Unless they run the ball well and Fields has a big day, this game will likely be out of hand by halftime. There’s only so much effort and intensity a team can play with before talent has to take over.