When Jimmy Johnson was head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, he quickly recognized the potential of trades in the draft. However, he knew it would be easy to lose track of whether he was getting ripped off or not. So he had his people assemble a value chart. It assigned a number value to every pick in the draft. When he engaged in trade talks, he would use that chart to determine whether he was getting good value in a deal or not. He credits that novel approach as a big reason he was able to build the Cowboys dynasty of the 1990s. Since then, every team in the NFL, including the Chicago Bears, has adopted a similar approach.
GM Ryan Poles could be only the third person since the turn of the millennium to trade the #1 pick. The necessary boxes are checked. He already has a young quarterback in Justin Fields, and his team is entering Year 2 of a rebuild. More picks should help that process along. The challenge is determining what the Bears can or can’t get from other teams for that top pick. So let’s take a look at the standard value chart for every potential suitor.
Pure math paints an interesting picture for the Chicago Bears.
Houston Texans
- Give: 1st pick (3000 points)
- Receive: 2nd pick (2600 points), 65th pick (265 points), and 73rd pick (225 points)
- Differential: +90 points
Indianapolis Colts
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- Give: 1st pick (3000 points)
- Receive: 4th pick (1800 points), 35th pick (550 points), 104th pick (98 points), 2nd in 2024 (420 points), and 3rd in 2024 (190 points)
- Differential: +58 points
Las Vegas Raiders
- Give: 1st pick (3000 points)
- Receive: 7th pick (1500 points), 38th pick (520 points), and 1st in 2024 (1000 points)
- Differential: +20 points
Carolina Panthers
- Give: 1st pick (3000 points)
- Receive: 9th pick (1350 points), 39th pick (510 points), 1st in 2024 (1000 points), and 3rd in 2024 (190 points)
- Differential: +50 points
Tennessee Titans
- Give: 1st pick (3000 points) and 101st pick (103 points)
- Receive: 11th pick (1250 points), 41st pick (490 points), 1st in 2024 (1000 points), and 2nd in 2024 (420 points)
- Differential: +57 points
It’s important to remember teams each have their own value charts when it comes to trades. Not all of them are similar to what Johnson did in Dallas. Still, this offers an interesting idea of what the Chicago Bears can expect in terms of ballpark offers. Obviously, the involvement of quarterbacks could inflate them. Based on pure math, the Raiders can offer the “fairest” deal. As far as package quality? That depends on preference. Poles would get could value in two high 3rd rounders from Houston while only moving down one spot. However, if he seeks a future 1st, then Carolina might be the sweet spot since the Bears will still be in the top 10. This comes down to Poles’ view of the draft class and the compensation he’s seeking.
just draft bryce
Mags might have used the chart incorrectly but this is the first article in moon years he at least put in some original thought and did some homework on. Nice work, more like this
They will NOT use any trade value charts for Pick #1.
Supply (talent and position) vs. Demand (number of teams in need of QB following Free Agent carousal) are the two factors that will dictate how much of a load the Bears receive.
Could be as many as 5-7 (HOU, IND, SEA, DET, LV, ATL, CAR, TEN) teams talking to Poles about Pick #1
Hopefully Poles plays the situation correctly when he trades back.
Do any of these draft trade value charts take into account a multiple team bidding war? If not, they are useless.
Interesting analysis. I’d like to see a similar analysis on what the Bears could get for trading the number two pick after trading the number one to Houston.