Bears Offense and Defense Must Reach These Rankings For Playoff Run

Making the playoffs in the NFL is hard. Nevermind winning the Super Bowl. It took the Philadelphia Eagles over 50 years to do it. Remember that. Chicago would settle for just the former at this point considering they haven’t seen it going on eight years now. For that to happen though, it will take a total team effort. That means the Bears offense and defense working in tandem to the common goal.

Yes, it sounds cliche. That doesn’t make it any less true. This is a problem that has haunted the team far too often. It seems like every time the defense gets good, the offense falls apart. Then during the few times, the offense picks it up, the defense can’t carry the load. Finding that balance is such an underrated challenge in this league.

Is there a way to find out what that balance is, at least for this team? Few things are so concrete but there may be a way to find a line they need to cross. I went back through every playoff season the Bears have had in the Super Bowl era. With each one, I compiled their rankings on offense and defense. These are the ranking for points scored and allowed.

That done I calculated each side of the ball out and came up with the average they’ve been when the Bears have reached the postseason. The results were interesting.

Bears offense and defense rankings in playoff years

• 1977 – 13^th and 19^th
• 1979 – 18^th and 3^rd
• 1984 – 16^th and 3^rd
• 1985 – 2^nd and 1^st
• 1986 – 13^th and 1^st
• 1987 – 9^th and 4^th
• 1988 – 18^th and 1^st
• 1990 – 10^th and 9^th
• 1991 – 14^th and 9^th
• 1994 – 24^th and 10^th
• 2001 – 11^th and 1^st
• 2005 – 26^th and 1^st
• 2006 – 2^nd and 3^rd
• 2010 – 21^st and 4^th

Averages:  14^th and 5^th

According to this, it means in order for the Bears to make the playoffs according to their history, if their offense ranks 14^th then their defense must at least rank 5th in order to compensate. Then as the offensive rank improves, the defensive rank can drop. A good example? In 2012 the Bears had the 4^th-ranked defense in the league. Under those conditions, they would’ve needed the 15^th ranked offense to make the playoffs. They ranked 21^st, finishing 10-6 but missing the postseason.

A year later in 2013, it was the reverse. The Bears offense ranked 2^nd in the league. According to this table, they would’ve needed a defense ranked 17^th to make it in. Their defense that year was 30^th. They finished 8-8 and were beaten in brutal fashion in the season finale. Let’s got back a bit further to 1995. The Bears offense ranks 8^th in the league. The defense would’ve had to rank 11^th. It was 22^nd. They went 9-7 but missed the playoffs.

There are exceptions to the rule as 1977 and 1994 above show but the bulk of the playoff trips in the Super Bowl era for Chicago follow this pattern. So what does this mean going forward?

The Bears defense finished 2017 with the 9^th-ranked defense in the league. One of its best performances in five years. If they are able to repeat that, then the offense would have to finish with a ranking around 10^th to give them a strong chance to make the playoffs. That’s certainly a tall order considering they were 32^nd a year ago. However, it’s not like this franchise hasn’t done it before. They went from 26^th to 2^nd in 2006, 28^th to 11^th in 2001, and 24^th to 8^th in 1995. One could argue this offense is more talented across the board than any of those were.