Dhruv Koul answers your questions in this week’s Bears Mailbag. Follow him on Twitter @DhruvKoul to continue the conversation.
The 2019 NFL Scouting Combine is now complete. After almost a week of measurements, tests, drills, and interviews, hundreds of NFL prospects have finished making the next part of their case to all 32 teams.
The Chicago Bears came to this Combine in a unique spot — without a first or second round pick in this year’s draft. Their first round pick resides with Oakland from the Khalil Mack trade, while their second round pick resides with New England from their trade up last year to grab WR Anthony Miller.
Following a 12-4 campaign and likely exclusively having to find ‘gems’ in this year’s draft, Ryan Pace said he feels more pressure this year to draft well and sustain the success the Bears tasted last year. The good thing is, Pace has shown an uncanny ability to find talent in the middle-to-later rounds.
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With the new league year starting next week, the Bears will be busy. Chicago has already made some moves in preparation for this offseason, with more certainly coming. It’ll be interesting to see how they re-tool and prepare themselves for the draft coming up in April.
With that, let’s reach into this week’s Bears Mailbag. Thank you to everyone who submitted questions — I always appreciate the participation!
1. Why don’t the bears just keep Howard this year as a prove it while also drafting a RB? 2. Who’s your favorite prospect and free agent at the positions the bears may add to
— Totally REAL Sports (@TotallyREALSpo1) March 4, 2019
To answer your first question, I’m all for keeping Jordan Howard next season. Do they need to make an investment at RB for the betterment of Matt Nagy’s offense? Yes. Do they *need* to trade Howard? No.
And to those worried about losing him next year for no value, that won’t happen. Howard would count towards the compensatory draft pick formula for the 2021 draft. The Bears are unlikely to be heavy players in free agency next offseason, and at the moment, Howard would probably count as a compensatory fourth round pick. So the Bears shouldn’t trade him just to trade him.
That said, they may trade him out of good will. He is a talented runner who can carry the load somewhere else (see Buffalo and Baltimore, among other places). They may trade him to give him a chance to land a bigger payday next offseason.
My top three RBs at the moment, post-Combine, in no particular order, are Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson, and David Montgomery. Any of them would be excellent gets but would require the Bears to likely spend their third-round pick on them. Some RBs that would be decent value in the later rounds include Bryce Love, Tony Pollard, and Rodney Anderson.
The Bears are unlikely to pursue their answers to the RB position in free agency. Of course, Le’Veon Bell is the best RB available, but that isn’t happening. Tevin Coleman is another talented runner who will be a free agent, but he’ll command a large contract outside the Bears’ affordability level, as would Mark Ingram. One name to keep an eye on that would be a good fit: Spencer Ware.
All in all: The Bears are certain to make some moves at RB this offseason. Replacing Taquan Mizzell on the roster is the number one goal. They may choose to replace Jordan Howard too, but they don’t *have* to.
Can the Bears afford Justin Houston?
— Garrett Lantz (@g_ratttt) March 4, 2019
Coming from the consulting world, I’ll give you my favorite, blanket answer: It depends.
First, the Bears won’t trade for Justin Houston — they’ll wait for him to be released. Once he (very likely) is, as things stand, they can afford his likely salary demands if they are OK with losing Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan and replacing them with very mediocre players. The Bears currently have about $16M in cap space following LB Sam Acho’s release this morning. They can manipulate the cap a bit more by converting some salary to bonuses (Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson, perhaps?). Let’s say that creates another $4M or so — that means $20M in cap space. Set aside about $3M for the upcoming draft class and that means $17M in cap space to work with for the rest of the offseason.
Given the Bears’ pressing needs at kicker, slot CB, S, and depth needs at EDGE and OL, that’s likely not enough to afford Houston.
If the Bears can convince Houston to play for a discount and a good chance at a championship, then things could get interesting. I, unfortunately, don’t see that happening given he refused a salary reduction request in Kansas City. But if he did, how great would that be?
Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy should take Khalil Mack on their recruiting trip and have him sell Justin Houston on:
1. Club Dub awesomeness.
2. The potential of creating the next great devastating EDGE tandem. https://t.co/ivQlHtZfmh
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) March 4, 2019
Q: Will the Bears go after either ex-Steeler in Le’Veon Bell or Antonio Brown? — Helen T.
Despite the obvious fits, scheme wise and talent wise, I’d like to channel my inner Michael Scott, as brilliantly portrayed by Steve Carell, for this response:
“NOOOOOO GOD! NO GOD PLEASE NO, NO! NO! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!”
It ain’t happening, and Bears’ fans shouldn’t want either of them. They will cost a lot and are not “we” players as Matt Nagy likes to refer to. The Bears are building a team, not a collection of guys. Neither Bell nor Brown fit that mantra.
Bears may need new starting Slot CB, S and RB and OL depth. How would you rate those positions in the draft at the rounds Bears will be drafting?
— Paul (@mrpchvz) March 4, 2019
If I had to bet right now, the Bears will likely retain CB Bryce Callahan. I don’t see the Bears addressing slot CB in the draft. And if they do need to replace Callahan, they will likely either sign a new free agent or let Sherrick McManis assume that role to start in 2019.
For the other positions, the Bears do indeed have needs there and will have some good options despite not having a first or second round pick.
At RB, the class isn’t anything special but there are plenty of prospects who can help the Bears. Miles Sanders and Darrell Henderson are the best options, but Chicago can get value from selecting guys like David Montgomery, Mike Weber, Justice Hill, Tony Pollard, Bryce Love, Rodney Anderson, and even Elijah Holyfield (in the 7th round or perhaps as an UDFA given his awful Combine numbers). There is no Ezekiel Elliott in this class, but any of these guys can help the Bears operate as a more efficient offense in 2019.
At S, this is a FAST and athletic class. I really like Amani Hooker and Darnell Savage (who tested off the charts) and both would be good fits with the Bears.
I am still in the middle of OL prospect study and will hold off on commenting on those prospects for now. But from what I gathered, this is a pretty athletic group and there are plenty of OL that would fit Nagy’s scheme.
There are options to be had at all of these positions of need. And Bears’ fans should trust Ryan Pace to find the right fits.
What do you think about Mark Ingram if he becomes available, do you think the Bears should pursue him or should they look at someone else via draft or other UFA's?
— Xavian Campos (@campos_xavian) March 5, 2019
Mark Ingram is a fine player, but he would likely require an investment higher than the Bears are willing to pay. Also, see my answers above as it relates to finding RB talent in the draft over free agency.
The RB situation intrigues me most this offseason — I look forward to seeing how Ryan Pace attacks it.
Thanks for reading this week’s Bears Mailbag. Follow the author on Twitter @DhruvKoul to continue the conversation.
