Once upon a time, the Chicago Bears were 5-1 and looking like a sure-fire bet to make the playoffs — this, despite legitimate concerns stemming from their play (including their five wins).
That was a painful month ago.
Since then, the Bears have lost four straight games in brutal fashion. Two incompetent offensive performances in prime time have book-ended two other terrible defeats, and the Bears are now 5-5 and very much outside of the playoff bubble, looking in.
Thread: Thoughts on Vikings-Bears…
1. The best thing I can say about the Bears a day after they hosted a divisional rival, in prime time, in the middle of a playoff race?
All hail the bye week for sparing us from watching this miserable mess of an offense for two weeks.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 17, 2020
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With a bye week this week, and some interesting nuggets starting to come out of Halas Hall (see below), we’ll see if the Bears can rebound with some of their newfound knowledge and go up to Green Bay and shock the Packers in two weeks. If they can, this season still has a bit of life. If not, well, no one should be surprised.
With that, let’s reach into this week’s Bears Mailbag. Thanks to everyone who submitted questions. I always appreciate the participation. Follow me on Twitter @DhruvKoul to continue the conversation.
Bears Mailbag
It's certainly looking that way. The biggest question is whether the new regime thinks they can fix the offense quickly enough for one more year out of the defense. I'll dive into this question further in the Mailbag article that I'll release tomorrow.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 17, 2020
Diving into this question a little more:
To start, yes, I do believe a rebuild is coming. The Bears really don’t have any more realistic cards left to play to fix their offense, and with six games remaining (and two games out of the playoff picture), it’s hard to imagine Ryan Pace or Matt Nagy retaining their jobs for a lousy finish after a 5-1 start, no matter how fortunate.
That said, the question becomes — will this rebuild be a “soft” rebuild or a total tear-down? The Bears have enough pieces on defense that, even with some painful moves for salary cap purposes, it should remain a decent unit with the right coaching. And if the new regime thinks they can fix the Bears’ offensive personnel issues quickly (namely, the OL and QB), they may opt for a retool this offseason with the hopes of giving it one more go in 2021. The Bears will gladly trade some defensive prowess for a significant upgrade in production and potency from their offense. Some sacrifices I can see the Bears making in that regard, on defense, including trading Kyle Fuller and Akiem Hicks. They also may try to do the old “take a player and a draft pick for free” with Robert Quinn, though I doubt anyone would be interested.
If the Bears can take their newfound cap space from those moves and additional draft picks (along with the projected compensatory draft picks they’re likely looking at), they can make some significant investment in the offense. At least 2-3 new starters on the OL, a QB of the future (potentially), and a new coach that can run the offense well and design good game plans can certainly have the Bears competitive in 2021.
However, if the new regime doesn’t think they can rebuild the offense fast enough, or they don’t want to reallocate resources in “shorter term” investments for the sake of a quicker playoff run, then they may opt for a total rebuild. In that case, the Bears really only have a few pieces truly worth hanging on to: James Daniels, Cody Whitehair, Darnell Mooney, Tarik Cohen, Eddie Goldman, Bilal Nichols, Roquan Smith, Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson. (Unfortunately, Khalil Mack would also be traded, in this scenario.)
Everyone else should be considered either a secondary asset or expendable. And in a scenario like this, the Bears are likely looking at a “go through the motions” 2021, and targeting 2022 as the earliest they’ll be competitive again — with 2023 being the likeliest scenario.
So, Bears fans, I’d prepare for a few more arduous years.
I don't think the Bears will have the flexibility to move up. IMO, they have a ton of moves to make that will weaken the team before it can get better. They should spend next offseason rebuilding the roster, and take their QB in 2022 to maximize their rookie contract window.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 17, 2020
My guess is it will be Nick Foles and another "cast off" type of QB manning the reins as the Bears attempt a rebuild.
Someone like Kyle Sloter (currently on the roster), a late-round draft pick, or maybe even someone like Josh Rosen.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 18, 2020
Keep in mind that if Nagy goes, it's likely that Pace is also gone. So the McCaskeys would have to hire a new GM first, who would then pick the next HC.
I think they will conduct another wide search and pick the best candidate. The candidates I like are not retreads.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 18, 2020
Without any real hope remaining for this offense, the Bears can justifiably be placed as an underdog in every remaining game — even against Detroit at home, Houston, and Jacksonville. I'd imagine the Bears are a 7-9 team at best at this point.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 18, 2020
If the Bears can't turn it around after the bye week, there's no chance these guys are back. Last night's loss, not only it being at home, in prime time, and to the Vikings, but the manner of loss, was critical in their evaluation. And they failed.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 17, 2020
I'm not at that point yet. But here are a few folks I'm seriously considering, if I'm the next GM:
Brandon Staley
Joe Brady
Arthur Smith
Pat Fitzgerald— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 18, 2020
I'm cautiously thinking it will be Foles, if he's healthy. But I hope it's Trubisky at this point. (No, I'm not a Trubisky stan.)
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 17, 2020
The new regime would have to see if they can fix the offense for one more shot with some of this defense. (My guess is that's unlikely.)
They are very likely looking at a large-scale rebuild at this point. It may not be as lengthy as the 2015 one, but it'll be a couple years.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 18, 2020
I’ve thought about it a lot, and while I think Nagy in particular is overblown as THE problem, the offense’s issues do lie with him. It’s a bad look that his “run the offense” QB has been so bad. I think he tried to do too much with KC assurances it would all work. It’s tough.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 18, 2020
I think Pace and Nagy would disagree with you there. They are not only fighting for their own jobs, but also their future jobs. They may get to 5-11 organically, because the offense is that bad, but they'll be trying to win.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 17, 2020
I get that! Here are teams I particularly enjoy watching, and the various reasons why:
NFC:
Saints (Sean Payton's game plans)
Bucs (Tom Brady)
Seahawks (Soft spot for Seattle)AFC:
Chiefs (Obviously)
Browns (Baker, Kareem Hunt)
Raiders (Scheme)— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 17, 2020
