By now, we’re all aware of the massacre that transpired on Sunday night. And before you frantically go to CNN or Fox News or whichever news outlet you generally choose, I’m talking about what the Green Bay Packers did to the Chicago Bears up at Lambeau Field on Sunday Night Football.
The 41-25 demolition that wasn’t anywhere near as close as the final score. And that night, if you listened closely, you could (sadly) hear the door being slammed shut on Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy’s careers in Chicago.
A few more thoughts on Bears-Packers:
1. To Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy: Thank you for 2018. It really was a magnificent year and fun to watch this team again. It sucks that it hasn't worked out since. Last night absolutely could not happen, but it did. Time's up. It's over.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) November 30, 2020
As mentioned in the above thread, the final five games of 2020 — vs. Detroit, vs. Houston, at Minnesota, at Jacksonville, vs. Green Bay — seem like a death march to the inevitable this offseason. It’s amazing what’s happened to this team in the span of two years…
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With that, let’s reach into this week’s Bears Mailbag. Thank you to everyone who submitted questions. I always appreciate the participation. Follow me on Twitter @DhruvKoul to continue the conversation.
Bears Mailbag
If Nagy and Pace are fired, and you were hired as the GM what would your outlook be for the team in the draft? Do you trade all of our stars (Mack, Akiem, etc.) for picks in the draft and rebuild or do you try and salvage something by building the offense up to win another year?
— Jackson Dircks (@jacksondircks) December 1, 2020
The question for the new regime is if they think they can rebuild the offense *in that year* itself and give it one more ride with a great defense. The problem, though, is that the Bears don’t have a lot of resources to work with in 2021, an expensive defense, and a ton of moves to make on offense.
The Bears are projected to just have about $2M in cap space for 2021, so they would need to make some tough choices. Jimmy Graham and Buster Skrine are obvious choices, but that doesn’t net nearly as much money as the Bears need. They need a QB (assuming Foles is the backup), a WR to replace Allen Robinson, at least 2-3 new starters on the offensive line, including two tackles (more premium spots), and other depth moves they should make at WR and TE.
Can they make all of those moves and still trot out a great defense in 2021? It’s not very likely. They’ll probably have to make some moves that impact the defense, and that’s where the Bears may choose to commit to a direction — namely, a rebuild.
Let’s try a more positive question. How did Bill Lazer do in his second play-calling game? I only watched the game once, and I know you watch it multiple times. I was happy to see him scheme players, which is diff than Nagy who thinks they are chess pieces and interchangeable
— Alex Thull (@Thullman_ELA) December 1, 2020
This is a tough one. The game got out of hand so quickly, the Bears didn’t really get to run much of their game plan. Mitch Trubisky alluded to that in his press conference on Wednesday, saying he was happy with his input in the game plan, but they didn’t get to run much of it due to the score.
Trubisky didn’t play well (three turnovers and some inaccuracy is bad), but there was no denying that the offense had hints of rhythm to it that it just didn’t have against Minnesota, Tennessee, the Rams, the Colts, you name it. Some of it was due to Trubisky being able to extend a couple of plays and pick up first downs, but the schematic shift from when Nick Foles was the QB to switching back to Trubisky was evident. The Bears were a lot less predictable in their formations and personnel groupings, and even David Montgomery had a big day on the ground. (The good thing about Montgomery is that his 57 yard run wasn’t a misleading inflator of numbers.)
The offensive line changes the Bears made also helped. Germain Ifedi played well enough at RT, Sam Mustipher was good at C, moving Cody Whitehair back to LG was a smart choice, and Alex Bars held his own at RG.
A lot of things came together to provide the offense a bit more rhythm, but they still didn’t score enough points, bottom line. Maybe they work out the kinks a bit more against Detroit, but overall, it was nice to see something new and different being attempted by this coaching staff.
With limited cap space, cap hell, no franchise QB and no all pro talent on offense should team take the Miami Dolphins approach and trade some players more draft capital?
— Robert Coleman (@LA_Rob_Coleman) December 1, 2020
The Bears will likely have to do this, yes. I’m of the opinion that if Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy are fired, the Bears will need to tear this down and rebuild.
For that, they will need draft picks and salary cap space. With so little cap space next year and a lot of money tied into a good but aging defense, some tough moves will need to be made.
I’d imagine the Bears look to trade the following defenders for cap relief and a draft pick to aid in the rebuild, at a minimum: Kyle Fuller, Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack.
They would do well to consider offers for Eddie Jackson and Roquan Smith, as well.
I’m sure they’d love to offload Robert Quinn and Danny Trevathan on a new team, but it’s unlikely they could do that.
What possible excuse is there for not firing Nagy? And what would the excuse be to keep Pace? And is it true that Nagy lost the lockerroom when he benched Trubisky and then stuck with Foles even after Foles performed worse?
— Mark Sweetwood (@MarkMSweetwood) December 2, 2020
In my opinion, Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy are tied at the hip. If one of them is worth firing, the other will likely be out the door as well. IF there was a “have to keep one of them” scenario, and it was up to me, I’d fire Pace and let the new GM decide what they want to do with Nagy.
Pace has done a lot of good as the Bears’ GM. He built an elite defense. He revamped the Bears’ facilities and ushered in a new era of technology and nutrition that has helped the Bears (generally) stay healthier throughout the season in recent years. (Remember the crazy set of injuries under John Fox?) He has generally managed the Bears’ salary cap well. But several misfires (especially at QB) have made his spot with the organization untenable. You just can’t miss on the QB — especially the way Pace has.
Nagy, however, is interesting. He built an unreal culture in his first year. He navigated a rough four-game losing streak last year to win four of their final six games to finish 8-8. This year has not progressed the way anyone wanted or expected, but here is where the argument for Nagy can take shape:
Nagy came over to the Bears with the goal of modernizing the Bears’ offense (in addition to winning games, which was his main responsibility as head coach). Being an Andy Reid disciple, Nagy had only seen Reid’s scheme at work his entire career — in Philadelphia and in Kansas City. He saw Doug Pederson go to the Eagles, have instant success and win a Super Bowl. He saw Reid build an insanely efficient and powerful offense even without Patrick Mahomes. The system Nagy essentially “grew up” with seemed unstoppable and infallible. It’s not a surprise he was so convinced it was a “plug and play” system.
Fast forward to his Bears tenure — he starts with the goal of implementing this same system, but he doesn’t realize he’s dealing with a quarterback who can’t read defenses, has sloppy mechanics, and struggles with good decision making. Trubisky’s up-and-down 2018 gave way to a colossal failure in 2019. Even as evaluators, we saw receivers schemed open on tape being missed constantly by the QB. It was evident that, while Nagy wasn’t “tailoring to Trubisky’s strengths”, the system could work if the QB could get the ball out properly.
Enter this season. The Bears’ coaching staff spent a ton of time implementing scheme changes that “fit” Trubisky better, but it’s clear the Bears felt QB was a weak spot — hence the Nick Foles acquisition. When Trubisky’s uneven play even with the scheme changes kept popping up, Nagy went to Foles in an attempt to go back to his scheme. Foles hasn’t worked out, and the scheme hasn’t worked because the offensive line has also been bad, but the talent level deficiency on the Bears’ offense has never been more evident. It took a while, yes, but Nagy finally accepted attempting other possible fixes — him giving up play calling, benching Foles for Trubisky again, and shifting the scheme back to what Trubisky was doing slightly better with early in the year.
Nagy’s leadership and culture-building abilities are not gone. Those will always remain. Now, he has learned the lesson that his scheme is not infallible — flexibility is required and adaptation is required to the roster on hand. If his penchant to try new things remains the rest of this year, and he takes this lesson with him moving forward, Nagy will be be a better coach for it. It *could* be worth seeing that through for one more year in Chicago, at that point.
Did he have the right to? Absolutely. He's the head coach.
Should he have? It's a bad look, but I didn't mind it. He's preached only positivity and "sticking together" his entire tenure, and it's clear that message is getting lost. Maybe a different approach helps!
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 1, 2020
The defense will not be in their prime by the time the Bears have their QB to win with. That will likely take another 1-2 years. By then, Hicks, Mack, Fuller, and Quinn are on the downsides of their careers. EJax and Goldman are well into his primes. The years add up.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 2, 2020
They will likely have to retool significantly, if not blow it up outright. I think the chances they can trot out the same defense and try to win in 2021 are next to nothing — especially with the limited resources they'll otherwise have to fix the offense.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 2, 2020
If the Bears somehow turn this around and make the playoffs, I don't think the Bears would fire either of them at that point. Making the playoffs after an 8-8 season was a fair goal in a Covid-19 world, and if they do that (somehow), they've probably earned another year.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 1, 2020
It's the NFL's charter franchise. They don't have the number of resources other teams do, but the challenge of building a winner in Chicago is something any candidate worth their salt would relish.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 2, 2020
It depends on where the Bears are drafting, but I'm going in with the vision of building a solid infrastructure for the future QB first, unless the Bears have a chance to land Trevor Lawrence (haha) or Zach Wilson. Right now, it's looking unlikely, so go BPA.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 1, 2020
Trask is a solid floor, limited ceiling prospect. If the Bears pick in the top half of the first round, I don't think that's a good area to pick Trask. Either trade down for more picks, or invest in the BPA at another position at that spot (possibly OL).
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 1, 2020
I wouldn't discount the possibility of selecting their own QB as a good selling point for the new coach. The Bears' next year or so will be tough in rebuilding, but it's still an attractive position.
The Bears should be in contention to land any of the top guys.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 1, 2020
I think the Bears will seriously have to consider trading Khalil Mack if their rebuild requires it — even if the draft capital doesn't match what they ended up paying for him. Pass rushers generally remain very good into their mid-30s, so Mack will have value for a long time.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 1, 2020
It really depends on what the new regime thinks it can salvage from this current roster, but I don't see how they can justify one more "all-in" run next year. A sell-off of some painful capacity is likely needed. We've likely seen the end of this era as we know it.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 1, 2020
I'll do more research on this in the offseason, but a few names that come to mind:
Ted Phillips — Trace Armstrong, Gary Fencik, Ryan Pace (seriously!).
Ryan Pace — George Paton, Eliot Wolf, Marvin Allen, Thomas Dimitroff.
Matt Nagy — Joe Brady, Mike Kafka, John DeFilippo.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 1, 2020
If the new regime thinks a full on rebuild is in order, then the only two players I can legitimately see as untouchable are Eddie Goldman and Jaylon Johnson.
Contract situations make Fuller, Hicks, Mack, Jackson, Roquan, Quinn, Trevathan, etc. all "in play" for a trade.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 2, 2020
I only see a tag-and-trade option in A-Rob's future. They could let him walk for a third-round compensatory pick in 2022, but there are other factors at play there, and that's a future pick. Tag and trade would (likely) net them immediate picks to use in 2021.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 2, 2020
Robert Quinn is indeed one of the worst acquisitions in 2020. I never liked the contract they gave him, but I did like the player. It just hasn't worked out.
Keep in mind, the Bears never play with leads. Their pass rush just doesn't have a true opportunity to affect a game.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 2, 2020
I have a feeling the Packers loss (and the magnitude of it) has fired these guys no matter what.
But if the Bears somehow turn it around to finish strongly at 8-8 or 9-7 (and looking like a good team), then they may have a case.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 2, 2020
