Well, Bears fans, after a wild roller-coaster of a 2020 season that’s essentially seen three different seasons in one, the Bears’ 41-17 destruction of the Jacksonville Jaguars made it all comes down to this: Week 17. Packers-Bears at Soldier Field. If Chicago wins, they make the playoffs. Sounds about right, doesn’t it?
A few extra thoughts on Bears-Jaguars:
1a. You may "Yeah, but…" the Bears' three-game winning streak all you'd like, but if you don't see a truly different team in the way it's scheming and playing, you're kidding yourselves. Major credit to the coaches and players.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 28, 2020
Of course, the last time the Bears had a “win-and-in” game at Soldier Field against the Packers in Week 17 that also kicked off at 3:25pm CT, the “Aaron Rodgers to Randall Cobb” miracle stunned the Chicago faithful in 2013. That was Year 1 of the (seemingly promising) Marc Trestman era.
Lots of things have changed since then for the Bears and Packers, but one thing hasn’t — Aaron Rodgers continues to strike fear in the hearts of Bears fans everywhere.
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It won’t be any different this Sunday. The Packers are aiming for their second straight 13-3 finish under Matt LaFleur, the #1 seed, and Rodgers looks absolutely reborn at age 37. Green Bay’s offense has been humming. They just tore the Tennessee Titans apart at Lambeau Field, 40-14. They demolished the Bears five weeks ago at Lambeau, 41-25 (the game wasn’t as close as the final score).
Long story short, the Bears could be in trouble. Luckily, there is more than one way to make the playoffs. Even if they lose to the Packers, if the Los Angeles Rams beat the Arizona Cardinals, the Bears are in. So let’s see what happens.
There it is.
We'll see if this showdown is John Wolford against Kyler Murray or if it's truly the Backup Bowl.
Tough break (literally) for the Bears. https://t.co/XcWTQd5TkJ
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
With that, let’s reach into this week’s Bears Mailbag. Thanks to everyone who submitted questions. Follow me on Twitter @DhruvKoul to continue the conversation.
Bears Mailbag
It's possible. They just have to ensure they stay ahead of defenses regarding their tendencies (which they did a good job of against JAX). I'm actually more concerned about the defense right now — Chuck Pagano has been quite bad for about 8 games.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
Let me clarify this one a little bit — I think my confidence in this team will stem mainly from how they perform against Green Bay. The Bears have definitely looked different the last month — strategically and schematically, and their execution has improved significantly. That’s all good.
Their production, however, has all come against defenses that don’t rank highly. The Vikings’ defense was ranked in the Top 10 in Defensive DVOA, surprisingly, and the Bears did a good job against them on the road. But they were also missing their defensive heartbeat in Eric Kendricks.
My point is, there are some caveats with their recent performance, and we need to see them perform well against a good, motivated team (like the Packers are).
If the Bears continue to shine offensively against Green Bay, then there’s real hope the Bears can make some noise once they’re in. None of the possible matchups they’d face in Round 1 are promising — in fact, there’s a scenario (albeit unlikely) where the Bears could head right back up to Lambeau Field in the Wild Card round. But then again, playoff matchups are never favorable!
The Bears will likely have to trade from their defense this offseason, no matter what. That's where a majority of the cap is tied up, and they need space. Even if they go on a deep playoff run, there will be changes made on defense.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 30, 2020
Everyone misses Vic Fangio.
I don't think so. Despite plenty of evidence that his scheme isn't working (Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, New Orleans, etc.), Pagano hasn't made many, if any, changes to the way he attacks, especially on third down. That's killer.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
Yes, I do think Pagano is on the hot seat. A few candidates to replace him:
Jay Rodgers (internal promotion)
Dan Quinn
Wade Phillips
Rex Ryan
James Bettcher— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
The Bears have committed thoroughly to the run the last month. I expect the Bears *needing* to pass, though, to keep up.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 30, 2020
If the Bears unload Foles, that would be huge.
Bringing Fitzpatrick in would be interesting — especially to pair with a rookie QB, perhaps.
I'd be OK (at best) with a Trubisky contract in the one-year, $10-12M range, or two-years, $20-25M range (club option for Year 2).
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
I think Jimmy Graham will be a cap casualty this offseason. He has provided the Bears what they needed, and I do think he's merited his contract. But the Bears would be better off with cap space over Graham.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
Close loss: It's honestly 50/50. If the Bears still make it to the playoffs, we see how they do there.
Blowout loss: Pace is fired. Ted is at least reassigned. New front office evaluates Nagy.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
It's interesting that there aren't any reports of Pace's job being secure like there are for Nagy.
My guess is if the Bears lose badly on Sunday (or lose badly in the WC round), Pace will be out.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
There really isn't a lot that can be done to defend Davante Adams. His route-running is some of the best in the NFL.
Press coverage with safety help is a start, as is getting immense pressure on Aaron Rodgers.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
If the Bears beat the Packers, I'd put the chances of return as the following:
Nagy — 90%
Pace — 60%
Trubisky — 50%— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
Toliver reportedly had some issues off the field, namely with his work ethic (late to meetings, etc.). With a talented rookie in Jaylon Johnson in the wings, the Bears didn't have patience for that from an UDFA in the culture they were building.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 30, 2020
If they get destroyed by Green Bay, I have to imagine there's a clean-out of the front office. I doubt the Bears even try a "prove it" deal with Trubisky, at that point.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
If you can't stop the run or pressure Aaron Rodgers, it's going to be a long day.
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) December 29, 2020
