Experts have their opinions. Insiders report what they’ve been hearing. Chicago Bears fans have heard plenty from both. So here’s an interesting question. What do the raw numbers say? It’s always interesting what happens when the subjective evaluations are stripped away and only the data is left. When looking at it through this lens, do the Bears end up with the same quarterback everybody thinks?
ESPN analytics experts Seth Walder and Paul Sabin conducted an interesting study. They covered every team that is likely to draft a quarterback early and projected which among the rookies has the best chance to be superior to the current “starter” on each team’s roster. In this case Andy Dalton for the Bears. Here is how they explained it.
“Predictions for 2021 rookies are based on their statistical performance in college, Scouts Inc. grade and age. After quarterbacks enter the pros, their projections are updated based on past NFL performance and age.”
Long story short? Their model isn’t a big fan of Dalton.
It rated four quarterbacks the Bears might be able to draft with at least a 40% chance of being better than Dalton as rookies. Two of them have a better than 50% chance to surpass him by their second season in 2022. One unsurprisingly was Justin Fields of Ohio State. The other? Kellen Mond of Texas A&M. It seems the data has a high opinion of him. Enough to where Walder and Sabin believe Chicago would get him at a significant bargain in the 2nd round.
“Though Mond’s Scouts Inc. grade is substantially lower than any of the expected first-round QBs, what he does have is four seasons of experience, with a QBR of at least 73.5 in each of the past three seasons. That’s a higher QBR than Josh Allen, Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold recorded in their final collegiate seasons, and that consistently solid performance drives his projection…
…More realistically, Chicago could be in play for Mond (or Florida’s Kyle Trask or Stanford’s Davis Mills), just like Washington. There’s a 94% chance Mond will still be available at the Bears’ No. 52 pick and a 65% chance he’ll be there at No. 83, too. Either spot would be a bargain for Mond, according to our model.”
Mond is a difficult evaluation. His production steadily increased through his four years as a stater for A&M, as did his efficiency. However, his numbers never really stood out. He threw 19 touchdowns in 10 games as a senior. By comparison, fellow 2nd round hopeful Kyle Trask threw 43 in 12 games. Is that due entirely to Trask having better weapons or could it be Mond just lacks certain traits to put more points on the board?
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Chicago Bears would certainly surprise by taking Mond
One of the persistent issues some evaluators have with him is his inaccuracy beyond the short and intermediate throwing areas. His deep ball isn’t good. He rarely throws it beyond 20 yards and when he does it’s not on target often. This confuses a lot of people because arm strength isn’t a problem with him. He can turn it loose when he wants to. Yet for whatever reason, he seems to lack the touch.
Is this something that can be fixed? Possibly. Proper mechanics and throwing fundamentals can clear such issues up. Also being in an offense that encourages deep shots tends to instill confidence in the quarterback. Matt Nagy experienced that in Kansas City. Alex Smith was never a deep ball thrower. After a few years under Andy Reid, he got a lot better at it. He doesn’t have the arm Mond does.
The QB has his fans too.
Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms ranked him #4 on his rankings for the 2021 quarterback class. Ahead of Justin Fields and Trey Lance. He pointed out how well Mond played against the SEC last year, going 8-1. The only loss coming against Alabama, the eventual national champion. He also lauded Mond’s ability to minimize bad plays and play within the system. If anything, Simms felt A&M held him back from being better than he was.
What makes all of this so fascinating. ESPN isn’t the first analytics people to say Mond and the Bears make the most sense. Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com said the exact same thing just a few days ago.
It’ll be curious if the Chicago Bears brass comes away with similar impressions. If so, he could end up being their guy on Day 2.
