Analytics Expert Used Math To Find Possible Next Chicago Bears Head Coach

Barring an unlikely late-season turnaround, Matt Eberflus is 11 games away from probably losing his job. There is no way the Chicago Bears can justify keeping a guy around who has the worst winning percentage by a mile in franchise history. That doesn’t even account for the controversies that have popped up this year. Eberflus isn’t a bad person. He had the right idea for what he wanted to build. His ability to execute that plan wasn’t good enough. It’s apparent he wasn’t ready for the challenge of running a team.

The question left to answer is, who replaces him? Whether GM Ryan Poles makes that decision or somebody else doesn’t matter. The Bears have to get that position right, especially with the strong likelihood they bring in a new quarterback next off-season. It stands to reason the team would want to pair him with an offensive-minded coach who can develop him. The challenge is finding the right one. Chicago’s last two attempts at this approach, Marc Trestman and Matt Nagy, failed.

One analytics expert might have a solution.

Steve Patton of Patton Analytics embarked on a project this year to gauge the value of play-callers in the NFL. He did this by collecting specific pieces of data and constructing a formula to assign each of them a score. It’s an interesting approach with logical ideas.

“Along with personnel decisions, play callers also influence the number of pass attempts called. Using an offense’s pass rate doesn’t account for various in game situations. Passes Above Expected from nflfastR are a better reflection of how aggressive a play caller is.

What about the team around the coach? This analysis considers how good the quarterback is along with the team’s cap allocation and draft capital spent. To account for quarterback value, the average ELO rating for starters is taken for each play caller. Similarly, a team’s yearly cap allocation on the offensive side is factored against the play caller.”

He’s been crunching the numbers all season. Following the action of Week 6, he released updated rankings on both the offensive and defensive sides. The results show three names (who aren’t head coaches already) standing out as the best play callers in the league right now.

• Detroit’s Ben Johnson
• Los Angeles’ Kellen Moore
• Buffalo’s Ken Dorsey

The Chicago Bears have good reasons to eye those men.

Johnson is a former quarterback who graduated with a mathematics and computer science degree. So it’s obvious he is intelligent. He worked his way into the NFL with the Miami Dolphins, helping develop Ryan Tannehill as a quarterbacks coach. Eventually, he landed in Detroit, earning a promotion to offensive coordinator by his fifth season. Since then, the Lions have ranked top-5 in both total yards and points scored. Quarterback Jared Goff, thought to be a lost cause in Los Angeles, is playing the best football of his career.

Moore was run out of Dallas this past year despite consistent success during his time there. His unit finished outside the top 6 only once in four seasons. In his first year with the Chargers, they’re top 10 in yards and scoring. Justin Herbert is off to the most efficient start of his career. Moore is the most experienced of the three coordinators and also the youngest at 34. He had a glittering college career as a quarterback at Boise State.

Dorsey is not the name most Chicago Bears fans think of first. That is likely because he inherited what Brian Daboll built in Buffalo. That is selling the guy short. Dorsey was a highly successful college QB, winning a national title for Miami. As a quarterbacks coach, he was there for Cam Newton’s MVP season in 2015 and Josh Allen’s All-Pro campaign in 2020. Since becoming offensive coordinator, the Bills are averaging 26.16 points per game. The guy knows what he’s doing.

All three guys are equipped to develop a Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. The Bears must determine which of them has the charisma to carry a locker room.