A Key Stat From 2022 That Could Result In Surprising Success For The Chicago Bears In 2023

The Chicago Bears will unofficially kick off their 2023 season on Saturday when they host the Tennessee Titans in their first preseason game. Chicago will look to improve and finish better than their franchise-worst three-win campaign of 2022. Although the Bears had the worst record last season, they did not play as badly as their record would reflect, as a vital stat indicates just how competitive they were and how it could result in surprising success in 2023.

The Bears Held A Lead in Most Games that They Lost in 2022

In 2022, the Bears lost a franchise record 14 games as first-year general manager Ryan Poles and first-year head coach Matt Eberflus embarked on a much-needed rebuild to overhaul the roster. Although Chicago had flashes of success, including a major upset of the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1 and dominating victory over the New England Patriots in Week 7, the rest of the season contained lackluster moments. One contributing factor to the poor record was the lack of talent on defense for the Bears, as the unit finished worst in the league.

Unfortunately, the defensive struggles and poor record covered up an impressive stat by Eberflus’ team, as Chicago held leads in 10 of the 14 games they lost. In three games, the Bears led their opponents by 10 points or more. Many of these blown leads came in the fourth quarter as the Bears led against their opponent in the fourth quarter in four games.

Although the defense is responsible for the blown leads and the losses, the offense deserved partial responsibility, as in several instances, Chicago’s offensive unit failed to score late in the game to recapture a lead. In five consecutive games, behind quarterback Justin Fields, the Bears’ offense had an opportunity late in the fourth quarter to tie or retake a lead over an opponent. In those opportunities, Fields and the offense failed to score any points.

The fact that Chicago led in almost every game they lost matters, given that the team fought through significant injuries, a lack of talent on the roster, and inexperience with coaching schemes. The four games Chicago did not lead in came against four playoff teams, including the Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles. These four teams featured some of the league’s best offensive scoring offenses against a talentless and injured Bears defense, as these games were also played after All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith and Pro Bowl defensive end Robert Quinn had been traded away for additional draft selections.

The 2023 Bears Are More Talented To Hold And Maintain Leads

In the offseason, Poles made a dedicated effort to add talent and improve both the offensive and defensive side of the ball for Chicago. On defense, linebackers T.J. Edwards and Pro Bowler Tremaine Edmunds were added in free agency during the offseason. Last week, Poles was able to sign Pro Bowl defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, who has averaged over eight sacks per season for his career. In the 2023 NFL Draft, Chicago added defensive tackles Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens while also selecting cornerbacks Tyrique Stevenson and Terell Smith. The rookies have performed well during training camp so far. With the return of All-Pro safety Eddie Jackson, who led the Bears’ defense last year in interceptions before suffering a season-ending Lisfranc injury, Chicago’s defense will be a more improved unit and likely be better in league rankings.

Offensively, The Bears could be playing with even larger leads for the defense to maintain, given the offseason additions made by Poles. Running back D’Onta Foreman, tight end Robert Tonyan, and guard Nate Davis were added via free agency. Offensive tackle Darnell Wright, running back Roschon Johnson, wide receiver Tyler Scott were added via the draft. However, Poles’ signature offseason acquisition on either side of the ball was the trade with the Carolina Panthers for the first overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, which gave the Bears wide receiver DJ Moore, who has three 1,000 receiving yards seasons in his five-year career.

The offseason additions to the offense and defense put the Bears in a much better position to not only take more leads against opponents but also to build and hold on to those leads, resulting in more wins. We could see situations in 2023 where Chicago’s defense could finish a game by sacking an opposing quarterback or forcing a turnover instead of surrendering a game-winning touchdown which would result in a loss. Also, instead of the Bears’ offense providing a three or seven-point lead for the defense to hold, we could see situations where the offense provides a double-digit margin heading into the fourth quarter.

Chicago having a chance to win 10 of the 14 games they lost last year matter because it shows, that despite the injuries and lack of talent, Eberflus and his coaching staff were putting players in position to have success. With the added level of proven talent this offseason, it is now up to Chicago’s coaching staff to ensure the success is sustained and translated to more victories. The Bears will win more games in 2023, but if they play better than expected it shouldn’t come as a surprise given how they played in their losses in 2022.