The season is still winding down but the hot stove is already heating up. The White Sox are on a late-season tear offering fans a preview of what the future holds. Since Sept. 9, the South Siders have ridden a wave of success with a 10-6 record behind stellar performances from their youngsters.
Yoan Moncada has found his comfort zone batting .303 over the past month and Tim Anderson has shed the sophomore slump batting .371 the last 30 days. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez have posted a string of quality-starts with parsimonious ERAs.
But even as the winds change in Chicago there is an eager eye towards the gaps that still need to be filled in rebuilding the organization. And now, we turn to the offseason shopping list.
MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams published a list of three priorities for the White Sox this offseason, a measuring stick that is sure to splinter over the winter months.
After the season Abreu had there is little doubt he will earn a large raise through arbitration. Abreu opted out of the rest of his contract last winter and he will reap the benefits of what he sowed this season. Adams had this to say about Pito.
“Abreu has been one of the best hitters in the American League over his four Major League campaigns, and he’s enjoying his best year since his rookie season in 2017. Thus far, he’s hitting .303/.356/.549 with 31 homers and a career-low 17.5 percent strikeout rate. His 40.1 percent hard-hit rate is easily a career-high, while his 6.9 percent infield-fly rate is the lowest of his career. Abreu is due a raise on this year’s $10.8MM salary, and he’s controllable only through 2019, so the end of his contract will coincide with the arrival of much of the team’s young talent.”
Yes, Abreu will be fighting Father Time after 2019 and long-term deals have become scarce for the mid-thirties age bracket, but with two young Cuban players forming part of the nucleus of the White Sox future it seems unlikely that Abreu will be allowed to walk.
At 33 years old, Abreu might fetch a three-year deal on the open market but he has expressed his desire to stick in Chicago. It might not happen this year, but I expect White Sox officials to begin the process of negotiating an extension with Abreu through 2021 or 2022. This would take him into the twilight of his career and still give him a chance to land a few one-year deals with contenders to earn a world-series ring (if he doesn’t already have a few).
Garcia is much more puzzling. He is 26 years old coming off his best major-league season and offers a host of skills. There is no shortage of arm strength and glitzy tools on a hulking frame, but Garcia is up against Eloy Jimenez’s ascension. Jimenez was the centerpiece of the Jose Quintana deal with the Cubs and if the decision were his he would already be in the show.
There are two pestering questions with Garcia: Is a .394 BABIP sustainable? And if so, what is his value on the open market?
Adams writes, “There’s no way Garcia can sustain a .396 BABIP, and his exit velocity is actually down from the 2016 season, but some of the strides he’s made appear legitimate. Like Abreu, though, he’s controlled only through 2019 and could be viewed by the organization as either an extension or a trade candidate.”
The White Sox don’t have to decide this offseason but their trade value declines as team control withers. And with Garcia’s sheer size suitors will expect better power numbers from the Goliath. So, the organization will think long and hard about which way to go. My guess is that Abreu becomes the cornerstone of the organization while Garcia gets a lot of attention on the trade market.
Go dumpster diving for veteran pitchers
Maybe not dumpster diving but at least bargain shopping. Derek Holland didn’t pan out the way some expected him to and James Shields, despite an outstanding performance on Monday, is falling apart and few teams if any will show interest in trade talks. Behind Shields will be Lopez and Giolito with the health of Carlos Rodon as a lingering question. Assuming Rodon will be healthy there is one spot left in the rotation.
Michael Kopech has his eye on that spot but his reality is a Triple-A stint until at least mid-June and could extend past the all-star break. Alec Hansen is not far behind Kopech and led the minors in strikeouts. But while Kopech and Hansen marinade in the minors there are several in-house options the White Sox could pursue in Tyler Danish, Carson Fulmer and Spencer Adams.
Adams is a stretch since he spent the entire season in Double-A, but Danish and Fulmer are viable candidates to land the final spot. Yet, White Sox brass might like an insurance policy to avoid burning service time if disaster strikes.
“Grabbing at least one veteran, if not two, to step into a similar role next season would be prudent,” Adams writes. “There should be no shortage of names available for the Sox to pursue, with hurlers such as Jeremy Hellickson, Scott Feldman, Tyson Ross, Anibal Sanchez and old friend Hector Santiago among the free agents likely looking at one-year rebound scenarios. Pitching coach Don Cooper’s reputation will likely be a point in the team’s favor in luring such veterans, as will be an easier promise to guaranteed innings than most contending clubs would be willing to offer.”
None of the names Adams suggests are sexy, nor are they good. Ross had an embarrassing season in 2017, Sanchez is putting on weight in all the wrong places (especially his ERA) and welcoming back Feldman to Chicago would be a painful and torturous vortex of jokes for White Sox fans to endure.
Hellickson might be the only one worth chasing. He will be 31 next season and has shown promise in the past. Other teams are sure to crowd around the right-hander and the White Sox would be foolish to offer anything more than a show-me deal for one year. Otherwise, re-sign Mike Pelfrey, Chris Volstad and Mike Holmberg to continue the plunge to a No. 1 pick in 2019.
Payroll = Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw
OK, maybe not Kershaw but Machado should be in the crosshairs. While the White Sox purged talent they also shed salary in phase one of rebuilding. The South Siders began the season with a payroll shy of $100 million and after moving Todd Frazier, Quintana, David Robertson and Melky Cabrera they trimmed a significant sum from the 2017 payroll. Quintana and Robertson were the only salary commitments beyond this season and totaled approximately $22 million.
There are several arbitration-eligible players that could boost the 2018 payroll quickly, but before we count our chickens the White Sox have an impecunious $40 million payroll for next season. The evaporating payroll could be Rick Hahn’s greatest achievement.
Even if Abreu earns $15 million and Avi Garcia doubles his salary, Yolmer Sanchez and a couple reasonable free agent pitchers won’t put the South Siders anywhere near where they started this season. And after they purge what is left in their final cuts Hahn will have a mountain of cash to spend on the historic free-agent class of 2018.
And if White Sox officials want to make a splash this offseason, Madison Bumgarner could hit free agency if the San Francisco Giants don’t pick up his club option. This is unlikely of course, but it could be the best opportunity for the White Sox to snare a premier southpaw.
One thing is certain, there will be no shortage of hot stove conversation in Chicago.
