Last week social media and the talking heads were all abuzz discussing the Jordan-LeBron comparison. However, the basketball Gods didn’t seem to enjoy that too much, so as it stands now the Warriors have a commanding two game lead. And while it cannot be disputed that LeBron James, better than Jordan or not, has created his very own legacy…
Being in a position to lose your fifth Finals doesn’t make the comparison so much fun anymore. So in true sports media fashion, it’s on to the next one!
Vegas picks the flavor of the week
Interesting hypothetical from @Westgate_LV: 2016-17 @warriors would be 6.5-point favorites against MJ-led 1995-96 Bulls on a neutral court.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 5, 2017
ESPN spoke to six Vegas oddsmakers regarding who would be favored in a heavyweight bout between the 2017 Warriors and ’96 Bulls. And while it wasn’t unanimous, five of the six had this years Golden State team favored by as high as -8 at the MGM (per Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports at MGM Resorts) to as low as -2 at William Hill US (per Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading, William Hill US).
Tale of the tape
Everyone knows how great this Warriors team is now with the addition of the Durantlula named Kevin. Hell, they were great before. Sure, people will point to the fact that they lost in the finals last year, but 73-9 is still 73-9. Let’s give credit where credit’s due…
It’s one hell of an accomplishment in it’s own right.
Although, what really matters here is, what rules are they playing by? It’s kind of why hypotheticals (while interesting in ever intriguing fantastical nature) are fucking pointless. The Bulls were built for hand checking. Playing through them, dishing them out, etc.
The Warriors were built to never think about them. Just create space and play an uptempo high scoring attack; predicated on great passing and court vision.
But, no matter the frivolity of such a mental exercise, let’s talk it out shall we?
Intangibles
When I saw the initial report that the Bulls would be playing against the spread last night the first call I made was to a friend of mine who runs a sportsbook (albeit an illegal one, sshhhh) in California. He mentioned the numbers and the fact that of course Golden State would be favored. Odds are always made based on trends and numbers, never intangibles and what if’s. What if’s are left to the people who place the bets. That’s why they’re called bets, and this is how Vegas stays afloat, taking the smart bet.
Easy economics.
One thing my friend also mentioned though, is that the Bulls may actually be, despite the odds, the smarter bet.
If one were to dig deeper they would see that during their respective campaigns, the Bulls were substantially better (46-33-1) against the spread than the Warriors (40-39-3).
Everyone knows that Jordan was never one to back down from a challenge. And while this may not play into the math for oddsmakers, it should almost certainly factor into the decision making process for the bettor. In this case, even the numbers support it.
Whichever way you slice it, the series would be an interesting one for sure.
Now of course, the Chicagoan in me would say that DA Bulls would have this dream match in the bag, no problem. The logical bettor in me would want to see the rules. While the situational bettor would pick the Bulls based on trends and odds producing a bigger payout. I mean come on, the match up might as well be a pick ’em.
Only problem is, we’ll never know. Maybe one day we’ll see it in Ice Cube’s BIG3 league.
Let’s just hope Luc Longley isn’t guarding Durant.
