Back in October I thought the chances of a Nico Hoerner trade were low, but heading into the Winter Meetings next week I’m kinda bracing myself for a big trade to happen and that may very likely involve the Cubs second baseman.
By now, we’ve seen Hoerner’s name come up nationally and locally as a potential trade candidate this offseason, but a recent report out of Seattle has taken this rumor a step further. According to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times, the Mariners and Cubs have engaged in trade talks involving Hoerner. The Seattle reporter says the Mariners have been in active talks with the Philadelphia Phillies for third baseman Alec Bohm, but the asking price has been high.
New: The Mariners have had exploratory talks with the Phillies about All-Star 3B Alec Bohm, but Seattle so far has balked at the asking price: https://t.co/XcqAoYbW0D
— Adam Jude (@A_Jude) December 4, 2024
Maybe the Mariners pivot and Hoerner becomes their preferred trade target? Jude adds one specific detail regarding the trade talks with the Cubs and it’s obvious, but nonetheless another reminder that a potential Hoerner trade would only happen if it benefits the MLB roster.
Via The Seattle Times.
The Mariners have also had preliminary talks with the Chicago Cubs about second baseman Nico Hoerner, a Gold Glove winner who offers positional versatility.
The Cubs are seeking proven major league talent in talks for Hoerner, a source said.
According to the report, the Phillies have been asking for one of Logan Gilbert or George Kirby, two of the Mariners’ top starting pitchers.
Bohm, 28, has two years left of arbitration before he becomes a free agent. He’s projected to earn $8.1 million in 2025. Meanwhile, Hoerner has two years left on his contract extension, set to earn $11.5 million in 2025 and $12 million in 2026.
Two different type of players, Bohm with more slugging, but overall Hoerner has the better track record. Since 2020, Hoerner has equalled Bohm’s 103 wRC+, but with his overall skillset the Cubs infielder has nearly been worth double the value as Bohm, 14.8 fWAR vs. 7.7 fWAR in the past five seasons.
So, while Hoerner comes at a higher salary, he’s also been the better player.
As Cubs fans, we know what Hoerner is and what he isn’t. A solid player, but his value seems to have hit a ceiling already. If the Cubs can pry away one of Seattle’s starting arms, then it could make sense if the organization believes Matt Shaw is ready to step in on Opening Day 2025 and become the every-day starting second baseman.
It’s becoming fairly evident that the Cubs may indeed feel that way about Shaw because Bleacher Nation’s Michael Cerami added on Wednesday that he heard a Hoerner trade might have been close back in November.
Via Bleacher Nation.
A couple of weeks ago, I heard that the Cubs were discussing a trade involving Nico Hoerner, and even that it had gotten quite serious. I didn’t report it at the time, because I wasn’t able to figure out which other team was involved or whether anything was imminent. Now, it seems likely that our behind-the-scenes speculation (I privately guessed the Mariners, but wasn’t told if that was correct) was likely correct.
I doubt the Mariners are going to trade either Gilbert or Kirby this offseason and Luis Castillo’s contract doesn’t make sense for the Cubs. So, that leaves 24-year-old Bryan Woo and 26-year-old Bryce Miller as the two most realist targets in trade talks between these two teams.
Woo and Miller are both in pre-arb, so they come with their own additional value of being cheap to go along with their quality on the mound. Woo has a 3.44 ERA in 209 career innings. In 2024, Woo posted a 2.89 ERA in 22 starts. Miller has posted a 3.52 ERA in 311.2 career innings and is coming off a 2.94 ERA season over 31 starts.
Of course, as the Mariners pursue different avenues to add to their infield, the Cubs also have other opportunities to explore in the trade market for another starting pitcher.
. @MLB trade market update:
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 4, 2024
The Cubs and Reds are among the viable candidates to acquire White Sox ace Garrett Crochet.
Of note, the Cubs and White Sox have made 4 trades since 2017, beginning with the José Quintana deal. @MLBNetwork
We should expect to see more trade rumors in the coming weeks and they will definitely pick up once Juan Soto picks a destination.
