Earlier this week the Chicago Cubs acquired right-handed reliever Eli Morgan from the Cleveland Guardians. There are plenty of things to love about the new Cubs pitcher, but we’ll also get to the one red flag that comes with Morgan.
The 28-year-old was selected in the eighth round of the 2017 MLB Draft out of Gonzaga by the Guardians and made his big-league debut with Cleveland during the 2021 season. He came up through the minor leagues as a starter and during his rookie season Morgan made 18 starts to mostly disappointing results. Morgan posted a 5.34 ERA in 89.1 innings and truthfully when I first looked over his numbers following the news of the trade I wasn’t really impressed.
However, the Guardians moved Morgan to the bullpen in 2022, and all of a sudden the righty turned out to be a solid reliever for his AL Central squad. His 2024 season looks fantastic, a 1.93 ERA in 32 appearances, but his three-year average from 2022-24 is more projectable for his future with the Cubs.
Since transitioning into a full-time reliever role in 2022, Morgan has recorded a 3.23 ERA in 173 innings.
He doesn’t throw hard, sitting between 92-93mph, but Morgan has figured out a formula with his change up to keep hitters unbalanced at the plate. Batters have a slash line of .226/.280/.384 against him out of the bullpen and while he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, Morgan makes sure to stay out of trouble by only having a 6.5 BB%. That walk rate ranks 11th best among all relievers with at least 170 innings pitched since 2022.
I discussed Eli Morgan last year as a Cubs target last offseason. He had a great year this season and is projected to make approximately $1m in arbitration. Very quality addition to the pen. They’re reportedly acquiring him according to Jeff Passan. https://t.co/APrdjdw0s2
— Greg Zumach (@IvyFutures) November 20, 2024
This isn’t the red flag, but one area that is a bit shaky from Morgan’s profile is that he will give up home runs. He’s given up 22 home runs in 173 relief innings, averaging 1.14 HR/9.
Overall, the Cubs are getting a solid reliever, who should be at the minimum, a reliable middle relief option with some upside that has multiple years of success at the major league level. Another thing to love about the acquisition is that the Cubs don’t have to use up much payroll on a useful bullpen arm. Morgan has three years left of arbitration, 2025 being his first, and he’s projected to earn a salary of $1 million next season.
By getting Morgan at a low cost the Cubs continue to have the ability to explore more bullpen upgrades this offseason.
Via The Athletic.
According to a league source, the addition of Morgan does not indicate the end of the Cubs’ search for relievers.
All right, the red flag.
Maybe it’s unfair and well what pitcher hasn’t suffered some type of injury, right? However, I think it’s the recency of Morgan’s arm issues that worries me the most. I mean, sure you can argue that the Guardians are trying to save money, albeit a small amount relatively speaking, as Morgan is now entering his arbitration years, but they gave up a decent reliever right after he missed time with two separate injuries in 2024.
First, after posting a 2.16 ERA in his first nine appearance of the season Morgan landed on the 15-day IL with right shoulder inflammation on April 17. He was activated off the IL on May 28, pitched 2.2 innings against the Colorado Rockies the next day and then a few days later Morgan was placed back on the injured list, but this time it was because of inflammation in his right elbow.
Morgan did return at the end of June, but was quickly optioned back to Triple-A less than a week later.
To his credit, and maybe calling the arm issues a red flag is exaggerating on my behalf, because once Morgan was called up by the Guardians in early August he finished the regular season with a 1.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 28.1 innings.
I think the major point on Morgan is that while he’s a solid add, we shouldn’t be expecting a shut down reliever either. MLBTR explains.
Morgan was the beneficiary of a microscopic .222 average on balls in play and a bloated 85.2% strand rate, both of which serve as a portent for some ERA regression.
At the end, a safe, low-cost, acquisition for a pitcher who throws strikes, limits hard contact against him and provides the team more flexibility to continue searching for more bullpen arms this offseason.
