Steven Wilson was the least notable player in the Padres trade package for Dylan Cease and the only player coming to the White Sox with previous MLB experience. Most people do not even know who he is or why he was part of the trade. After all, Wilson is a reliever and also 29 years old, which is even older than Cease. Looking into Wilson’s profile, however, it is clear why Chris Getz targeted him.
Drafted by the Padres in the eighth round of the 2018 draft out of Santa Clara University, Wilson received a measly $5,000 signing bonus. Most players who sign for that little out of the draft do not even sniff the major leagues, let alone experience sustained success at the highest level. However, Wilson has been one of the exceptions to the rule. In 102 MLB appearances so far, Wilson has a 3.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 9.3 K/9.
Wilson’s Pitch Mix
Wilson has four pitches in his arsenal: a sweeper, four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter. Yet he is essentially a two-pitch pitcher now, as he threw his sweeper 59.8% of the time and his four-seamer 36.4% of the time in 2023. His changeup and cutter usage last season was negligible, as those two pitches combined for only 3.8% of his arsenal.
The sweeper is Wilson’s best pitch by far. Per Baseball Savant, opposing batters hit just .165 against it last season while whiffing 27.7% of the time against that pitch. His four-seam fastball was also an above-average pitch, as batters hit just .179 against it while whiffing 25.2% of the time. Given Wilson’s success with his sweeper and four-seamer, it makes sense why he has essentially become a two-pitch pitcher and mostly scrapped his changeup and cutter.
Wilson is also elite in specific categories. Per Baseball Savant, Wilson was in the 92nd percentile in Breaking Run Value, thanks to his elite sweeper. He was also in the 99th percentile of expected batting average, the 91st percentile in extension, the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage, the 84th percentile in average exit velocity, the 81st percentile in expected ERA, and the 71st percentile in K percentage. In simple terms, Wilson is very successful in generating soft contact, outs, and whiffs, mainly due to his sweeper and four-seam combo. His elite stats in the percentiles listed above were almost certainly a factor when Chris Getz insisted on his inclusion in the trade.
Up And Down 2023
Wilson’s 2023 season fell into two distinct sections: before he got hurt and after he got hurt. He went on the 15-day injured list with a right pectoral strain on June 27th of last season. In 35 appearances before landing on the IL, Wilson had a 2.43 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts in 37 innings. In 17 appearances after returning from that injury, he had a 7.31 ERA and 5.82 FIP over 16 innings. Wilson also missed all of September last season with inflammation in his left hip.
Given how well he performed before getting hurt, it is reasonable to conclude that injuries were why Wilson struggled so mightily down the stretch last season. Those second-half struggles might also explain why the Padres felt comfortable including him in the return for Cease. But their loss could be the White Sox gain. Wilson has not allowed a single run in six innings this spring while striking out 10. He has struggled with walks but seems fully healthy again and is a candidate for a high-leverage relief role with the White Sox. Wilson could be the setup man or even the closer on opening day, depending on what the team decides to do with Jordan Leasure.
Potential Trade Asset
While he is already 29 years old, Wilson only has two seasons of MLB service time to his name. He will not be a free agent until after the end of the 2027 season, so the White Sox have four years of control over him. Wilson could be a valuable commodity at the 2024 trade deadline if he pitches well in the first half, given his significant amount of cheap team control. Given where the team is now, the White Sox do not need a 29-year-old reliever. Keeping relievers long-term is also not Chris Getz’s priority at the moment. After all, he dealt Gregory Santos earlier this offseason, who is significantly younger than Wilson and had more team control than him.
Acquiring Wilson at the back end of the package for Cease is a savvy move on Chris Getz’s part. Wilson has already succeeded at the MLB level and is an affordable reliever for the next four seasons. Given that contenders always need more bullpen arms, look for Wilson to get dealt at the deadline for more prospects as the White Sox continue their youth movement and reshape the roster.
