Well, I thought that the national media couldn’t be much lower on the White Sox than they already were, but that is not the case. FanGraphs released their projections for the White Sox pitchers in 2024, and boy are these projections horrible.
Let’s take a look at how they project the White Sox pitching staff:
Starters
Dylan Cease- They don’t believe Cease will have a bounce-back season, as they project him to pitch to a 4.13 ERA over 178 innings. But, they do believe in his strikeout numbers, as they think he will strike out 10+ batters per nine innings. If this is how they project him, the White Sox should trade him before the Season starts, as his value won’t go up.
Michael Kopech- They are also very, very low on Kopech, as they think he will pitch to an abysmal 5.20 ERA over 130+ innings. This is a horrible projection, as if healthy, Kopech will be much better than that. If he qualifies, this would be one of the worst ERAs in MLB, and that won’t likely be the case for Kopech in 2024. He had a down year, but he won’t likely repeat that this season.
Eric Fedde- They are just as low on Eric Fedde, as they don’t believe in his breakout in the KBO. Over 146 innings, they project him out to a 5.18 ERA. This would be a very bad season and it would be a horrible signing for the Sox if this projection is accurate. I don’t think he will be one of the worst pitchers in baseball, so again this is a horrible projection.
Mike Soroka- They are higher on Mike Soroka, as they believe that injuries have hampered his career to this point. They think that he will pitch to a 4.36 ERA over 130+ innings. This would be a solid ERA for Soroka, as he has been unlucky in terms of health the last few years. If he pitches like this, he could get a contract extension from the White Sox.
Chris Flexen- For some reason, they don’t think he will be a full-time starter in 2024, but he likely will be. Regardless, they think that over 100+ innings, he will be very bad. They project him to a 5.16 ERA with a very low 6 strikeouts per nine innings. This would be a bad year and hopefully, the Sox would DFA him if that was the case.
Nick Nastrini- They think that Nastrini will come up at some point and start 13 games for a total of 74 innings. But, unfortunately, they don’t think those innings will go too well, as they project him out to a 5.07 ERA. This would not be a great start to his MLB career, but he will likely perform better than that if he gets some MLB starts.
Relievers
Touki Toussiant- The projection for him is pretty good. They think he will pitch to a 4.62 ERA over 90 innings. This would be perfect if he is coming out as a long reliever in the ‘pen or making spot starts. He broke out with the Sox at the end of the year and he should look to build on that.
Garrett Crochet- FanGraphs is very high on Crochet as they think that he will have a 10 k/9 and a 3.93 ERA over 88 innings, some in the ‘pen and some starting. Chris Getz said they wanted him to be a starter, and if these are the numbers, he will stick around in the rotation.
John Brebbia- One of the newest members of the White Sox, they think Brebbia will have a solid year. They project him with a 9.3 K/9, a 4.28 ERA, and 12 saves over 60 innings. They think that he will be splitting time with Santos in the closer spot, which would be interesting, but it should only happen if Santos is not handling the position well. He can be a solid back end of the ‘pen guy for the Sox this year.
Gregory Santos- They also think that Santos will do well, as they have him at a 3.8 ERA over 60 innings, with a 9 k/9, and 18 saves. The ERA projection is a bit higher than where it was last year, but I think he will improve, rather than get worse. The saves are interesting, as if he is on his game, he could have 25+ saves.
Tim Hill- The only reliever to be projected with negative war on the season, they think Hill will pitch to an okay 4.45 ERA over 60 innings, with five strikeouts per nine innings. This would be interesting, as the ERA isn’t too elevated. They must think that he will get hit around more, rather than striking out guys, which can lead to more runs.
Shane Drohan- They are pretty high on the Rule-5 draft pick, as they think he will get in 58 innings, pitching to a 4.4 ERA and an 8 k/9 ratio. If this was the season for Drohan, this would be a great starting point, as this would be his first major league action. Hopefully, he is around these numbers, as it would be a steal to get a very solid pitcher in the Rule 5 draft.
Overall, they are very low on most of the pitching staff, to the point where it is comical. Most of these pitchers won’t be anywhere near these low projections, but if they are, it will be a long year.
