Michael Busch Expected to Change Position with Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have added one significant bat their lineup with the acquisition of left-handed hitting infielder Michael Busch. The 2019 first round pick is now with the Cubs along with right-handed relief pitcher Yency Almonte. The big story here is what Busch’s presence on the Cubs roster means for the rest of the team and we already have an idea of where Busch will slot in.

Busch, who is listed as a third baseman and started 10 of his 18 games at the hot corner with the Dodgers in 2023, is now expected to become the primary first baseman for the Cubs to begin spring training. While Busch broke out offensively in recent years at the plate in Double-A and Triple-A, he has not been able to lock down a defensive position. When he has played third base, Busch has been shaky, committing 13 errors in 538 innings at Triple-A in 2023.

While Busch seems to have the skillset to provide some roster flexibility, with previous starting experience in the corner outfield spots, the Cubs may be envisioning him as their future first baseman.

Via The Athletic.

The Cubs value defense, especially in the infield, extremely highly. With multiple contact-oriented pitchers in the rotation, having Busch play third could be hard to reconcile.

With that in mind, the expectation is that Busch will enter spring training as the team’s primary first baseman with a chance to move around the diamond. Obviously, as a first baseman, he’ll need to hit, but scouts believe he’ll do enough at the plate for that to not be a concern.

So, what can Cubs fans expect from Busch at the plate?

Let’s begin by looking at his results at Triple-A from 2023, which earned him Minor League Player of the Year honors from the Dodgers last year.

Michael Busch 2023 Triple-A Stats
98 Games, 469 Plate Appearances
.323/.431/.618, 1.049 OPS, 150 wRC+
27 HR, 18.8 K%, 13.9 BB%

Following the canceled 2020 minor league season, Busch started to thump pitching at Double-A, leading to his promotion to Triple-A early in the 2022 season. From 2021-23, Busch blasted 79 home runs. The lefty made his MLB debut with the Dodgers on April 25, but he only stuck around for a couple weeks before he was optioned back. The same thing happened a few more times throughout the 2023 season and Busch ended the year with a total of 81 plate appearances in the majors.

Busch played in 27 MLB games and didn’t do much offensively, slashing .167/.247/.292, with two home runs and a 49 wRC+. Very reminiscent of Matt Mervis’ month with the Cubs. However, while their numbers were similar, it appears as though Busch wasn’t getting beat up in the zone as much as Mervis was during his stint in the majors.

Furthermore, Busch recorded better batted ball data than Mervis and hopefully with more playing time it translates into MLB success.

Via Brendan Miller.

Michael Busch AAA numbers compared to MLB:
– Contact: 82% (MLB: 76%)
– Chase: 21.3% (MLB: 29%)
– Max evit velo: 111.5 (MLB percentile: 50th)
– Avg exit velo: 91.3 (MLB percentile: 80th)

This is Keith Law’s evaluation of Busch.

Via The Athletic.

Busch has been on my preseason top-100 prospect rankings for the last three offseasons, coming in at No. 74 last winter, and will probably make it one last time this year as he’s at exactly 45 days on the active roster, meaning he’ll lose his rookie eligibility with just one more day in the majors. He’s an advanced hitter who’s hit for power with hard contact for three straight years in Double A and Triple A. That’s come with 79 homers over the last three seasons, although I expect him to be more of a high doubles, 18-22 homers guy in the majors. In his brief stint with the Dodgers last year, he put the ball on the ground too often, and his swing is much more geared towards low line drives than big fly balls.

If you take a look at his 2024 projections, Busch is lined up to become a dependable bat in the middle of the Cubs lineup and finally get good production out of the first base position, which has been awful since Anthony Rizzo’s time on the north side.

In 2023, Cubs first basemen combined to hit .241/.299/.414.

Prior to the trade, Baseball America wrote about Busch and their analysts are bullish on the left-handed hitter’s outlook now that he will have a clear path to regular playing time in the majors.

Over at MLB Pipeline, Busch is now ranked as the Cubs’ No. 3 prospect, behind Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton.

Speaking of rankings, the Cubs are now up to seven top-100 prospects in MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list with the addition of Busch.

So, what are your thoughts on Michael Busch, who may now be the Cubs starting first baseman?