As the GM Meetings get underway and free agency officially kicks off this week, we are going to be seeing the Chicago Cubs linked to nearly every top free agent this offseason and you can sprinkle in some trade rumors as well. Before we dive deep into those talks, let’s take a look at predictions.
MLB Trade Rumors ranked the top-50 free agents this offseason and the three-person panel picked the Cubs to sign four of those players, including two pitchers coming over from Japan. You can see MLBTR’s full free agent predictions here.
All, right here are the four top free agents that at least one of MLBTR’s experts predicted to sign with the Cubs and for their projected contracts.
Matt Chapman
Position: Third Baseman
Age: 30
Contract Prediction: 6 Years, $150 Million
Naturally, the top free agent third baseman is picked to go to the Cubs, who do have the need to fill following a mixed bag from several players at the hot corner during the 2023 season. Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, Christopher Morel and after the trade deadline, Jeimer Candelario all had time at third base last season. Madrigal was the best defender, but he missed time with a hamstring injury and was inconsistent at the plate.
Wisdom had good power numbers, but was demoted to a platoon role in the second half of the season. Morel’s throwing remains a concern and while you wish he would be the future third baseman, his defense is a big question mark and there’s a chance he’s involved in a trade this winter. Mastrobuoni turned into a solid bench guy, but at this point shouldn’t be seen as a starter, while Candelario is also a free agent.
I’ve written about Chapman already. Hard pass. Too many red flags.
Jeimer Candelario
Position: Third Baseman/First Baseman
Age: 30
Contract Prediction: 4 Years, $70 Million
Depending on what the Cubs do at first base, Jeimer Candelario could end up being a solid backup option in free agency. That being said, there is no chance the Cubs offer him that four-year, $70 million contract. Maybe a two-year deal, but he’s not getting more than $15 million per year even after a good season at the plate. Since making his MLB debut in 2016, Candelario has a 102 wRC+, barely above a league-average hitter. Although he does have seasons of 119 wRC+ and 117 wRC+ in 2021 and 2023, respectively.
Shota Imanaga
Position: Left-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age: 30
Contract Prediction: 5 Years, $85 Million
Yuki Matsui
Position: Left-Handed Relief Pitcher
Age: 28
Contract Prediction: 2 Years, $16 Million
While 25-year-old phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto has gotten the most attention this offseason, he’s not the only Japanese pitcher available in free agency and he’s not the only one the Cubs have shown interest in.
Lefty starter Shota Imanaga may be a familiar name to fans who watched the 2023 World Baseball Classic. He got the win in the championship game against the United States, allowing one run in two innings. During his career in Japan, Imanaga has recorded a 3.18 ERA in more than 1,000 innings of work. In 2023, Imanaga had a 2.66 ERA in 159 innings, with an incredible ratio of 188 strikeouts to 24 walks.
Imanaga is viewed as more of a middle of the rotation starter rather than an ace type talent like Yamamoto.
Meanwhile, the Cubs will also need to address their bullpen this offseason and Yuki Matsui has been linked to them before. The 30-year-old has been an elite closer in Japan and he just capped off 2023 with a third consecutive season of a sub-2 ERA. The left-handed closer has recorded 236 career saves in Japan, while posting a 2.40 ERA in 501 appearances.
Even if the Cubs don’t bring in Matsui as their closer, he’d certainly be welcomed in the bullpen that has a few open spots to fill this offseason.
