Green Bay Packers At Chicago Bears: Week 1 Prediction

The Chicago Bears will open their 2023 season against the Green Bay Packers. There isn’t much that needs saying. It’s the oldest rivalry in the NFL. It’s a game that hypes itself at this point. However, there are plenty of subplots going into the action. Neither team is favored to win the division this season. Both have questions at the quarterback spot. This game could be telling in many ways.

So, let’s break everything down from the backstory to the matchups and figure out who will emerge with the crucial first victory of the year.

The Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears should be fascinating.

Backstory:

Everybody knows the story by now. The Bears haven’t beaten the Packers since 2018. This is a misery they’ve been living in for the better part of 30 years. Now, with Aaron Rodgers gone, it’s hoped this might finally be the time when they can regain some semblance of control in the rivalry. Then again, given Green Bay’s luck, Jordan Love could be the heir apparent to carry on the legacy of “ownership.” Justin Fields is 0-4 against the Packers, so he has lots to prove in what could be a pivotal game right out of the gate.

Injuries:

Teven Jenkins (calf) – The Bears haven’t been able to field a fully healthy offensive line for what feels like years. That trend will continue in the opener. Jenkins injured both calves last month and is considered “week-to-week” by the team. The translation is he’s probably out for the next month. It’s a tough blow for the offense. Jenkins is probably their best run-blocker.

Rashan Gary (knee) – A torn ACL ended Gary’s season last year. While he is expected to play in the opener, nobody is sure who will show up. The star pass rusher didn’t play a single snap in the preseason and only just started participating in 11-on-11 drills. His absence last year severely weakened the Packers’ defense. They will likely limit his snaps as he works his way back to 100% recovered.

Key matchups:

D.J. Moore vs. Jaire Alexander – Few players have given the Chicago Bears more headaches than Alexander. He has three interceptions in his career against them. However, Moore will be his toughest challenge to date. The newly-arrived receiver is not only as good of a route runner as Allen Robinson was, but he’s also fast. Moore has played the Packers twice in his career, torching them for 251 yards on 15 catches. Moore and Alexander met six times in coverage. The receiver made five catches for 69 yards.

DeMarcus Walker vs. Zach Tom – Green Bay is putting a lot of faith in the former 4th round pick to hold down the right tackle spot. He was inconsistent there last season. Chicago signed DeMarcus Walker to man their left defensive end position, meaning he’s likely to see lots of Tom in the opener. The veteran lineman had 7.5 sacks last season. If the Bears are going to have a shot at winning, this is a matchup he must exploit. It will also prove crucial in stopping the run.

X-factors:

Kenny Clark – Go back over the past six victories the Packers have enjoyed over the Bears since 2019. There is one consistent theme in all of them. Chicago struggled to block Clark in every single one of them. He is a menace on the interior with 4.5 sacks in those six games and also a constant problem whenever they try to run the ball inside. This is why it’s been so frustrating that the Bears haven’t been more aggressive in finding help at center and guard until recently.

Justin Fields – The good news is Fields’ most recent game against Green Bay was his best. He threw for 254 yards and ran for 71, including a touchdown. His only issue was two costly interceptions. It was evidence that the Bears quarterback had made considerable progress as an all-around player. The next step is reducing his mistakes. His new supporting cast and more experience in the offense should help with that.

Prediction: Packers win 23-20

The gap has most definitely closed between the two teams. However, the fact remains Green Bay still has the stronger roster on paper. That is especially true in the trenches. They have star power on the offensive and defensive lines. Unfortunately, the Chicago Bears don’t. At least not yet. So unless they put together a complete performance, this feels like a game the Packers will control up front. They’ll run the ball well and Jordan Love will do just enough to get them the win.