There is nothing more fickle in baseball than middle relievers. One year, hell maybe it’s a few years, they look great, and then all of a sudden they look terrible the very next season. It sucks a lot because it’s not a gradual decline either. Kind of seems like when a guy loses it, it happens in a blink of an eye.
Right-handed pitcher Brad Boxberger was one of two veteran arms the Chicago Cubs signed to add to their bullpen this past offseason and fans have already wanted both gone. Michael Fulmer blew up in some pretty big spots in April and he lost his closer’s role, but despite his bad outing on Sunday against the Minnesota Twins, Fulmer has been good in the last few weeks since he was demoted in the bullpen. So, the new target for disgruntled Cubs fans is Boxberger and I agree.
I graded the signing of Boxberger as a B+ in the offseason, mainly because he signed a one-year deal worth $2.8 million. He did have a solid track record and at that price you certainly welcomed him to a mostly un-proven bullpen. However, that’s not much of a commitment from the Cubs, so when he shows signs that he won’t be good this year, then you do understand why fans are ready to see the team move on from Boxberger.
The 34-year-old, at times this year with the Cubs, has been more lucky than good. He has 13 strikeouts to 9 walks, which is below his career 2.5 K/BB rate. Plus, hitters have been all over Boxberger’s pitches this year. Check out this contact numbers compared to last year.
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2022 Numbers
Soft Hit % – 19.9
Medium Hit % – 52.2
Hard Hit % – 28.1
2023 Numbers
Soft Hit % – 7.1
Medium Hit % – 54.8
Hard Hit % – 38.1
Yeah, you definitely hate to see the soft contact rate plummet, while the hard hit rates have soared so far in 2023 for Boxberger.
Since breaking into the majors with the San Diego Padres in 2012, Boxberger hasn’t necessarily been a dominant strikeout pitcher out of the bullpen, but he has recorded a handful of seasons when he’s averaged 10+ strikeouts per nine innings. It is a small sample size this year, only 14.2 innings, but Boxberger is down to about 8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Nearly every number you look at is bad for Boxberger.
But maybe it’s more about the other pitchers in the Cubs organization than Boxberger. Again, he’s a 34-year-old on a one-year deal, he’s not a long-term piece. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Jeremiah Estrada seems like a young reliever who you would think the Cubs would want to see more at the MLB level.
I won’t bash the Cubs for signing Boxberger, but this is starting to feel like 2019 with another veteran reliever in Brad Brach, who seemed like a decent enough signing when it happened, but once he was floundering during the season the Cubs maybe waited a bit too long to move on from him.
Again, we’re talking about a very bad NL Central Division and even if you don’t think the Cubs will be there at the end, they are still in the race right now. One middle reliever in the bullpen may not make the biggest difference throughout an entire season, but it’s probably better for the Cubs to see what they have in some of their younger pitchers instead of hoping a struggling veteran can turn it around.
Cubs to see what they have in some of their younger pitchers instead of hoping a struggling veteran can turn it around