Debates continue to rage about what the Chicago Bears will do with their 1st round pick in the upcoming 2023 draft. Fans appear split into several camps. Some think GM Ryan Poles will target the best offensive tackle available, given it’s an obvious need. Others think head coach Matt Eberflus will urge Poles to target the best defensive lineman on the board to give his front four a possible difference-maker. Some think wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be a wild card on the table.
Anything remains possible. Much of this could depend on how the first eight picks unfold. However, sometimes it’s a good idea to remember the data. Poles is a big analytics guy. He would be away of the trends when it comes to which positions are better to take early in a draft and which can be saved for later. In that regard, recent history says the Bears will take an offensive tackle at #9 (or wherever they trade down to). The pass rushers will come on Day 2. Here’s why.
Pro Bowl offensive tackles taken in 1st round since 2012
- Lane Johnson
- Taylor Lewan
- Laremy Tunsil
- Eric Fisher
- Tristan Wirfs
- Jake Matthews
- Ronnie Stanley
- D.J. Humphries
- Matt Kalil
- Ryan Ramczyk
- Riley Reiff
- Jack Conklin
Pro Bowl offensive tackles taken in 2nd-3rd rounds since 2012
- Orlando Brown Jr.
- Terron Armstead
- Brian O’Neill
Pro Bowl pass rushers taken in 2nd-3rd rounds since 2012
- DeMarcus Lawrence
- Danielle Hunter
- Akiem Hicks
- Frank Clark
- Yannick Ngakoue
- Trey Hendrickson
- Harold Landry
- Chris Jones
Everything points to the Chicago Bears grabbing a top tackle.
Waiting until late in the 2nd round isn’t likely to get them the help they need. Conversely, they will have some solid options available at #9. Paris Johnson (Ohio State), Broderick Jones (Georgia), and Darnell Wright (Tennessee) are considered the three best in this class. Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) is another option, but most consider him a guard due to his length. All four of those players are considered plug-and-play starters. It depends on which one, if any, Poles thinks has the highest ceiling and fits what the team needs.
The heavy favorite right now is Johnson. He’s played with Justin Fields before. He has the size, length, and athleticism the Chicago Bears have constantly talked about. His performance down the stretch last season showcased his ability as a pass protector, and there’s still so much room to grow. Then again, Jones is the better athlete, while Wright dominated the best conference. It comes down to preference. Poles holds the final say. If he sticks to the analytics, it will be an offensive tackle.
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Why do people keep throwing Skronski’s name out there at #9? Poles does not value interior linemen as much as OT, DE, 3T and CB. He has said this repeatedly and Skronski is an NFL Guard. He will drop to at least 15. Yes, he is a probowl guard in the making but Poles is not looking for another OG.
Bob
Its from Sid L. He’s jealous that Martin appears well informed and knows what hes talking about
My guess is they will Carter if he drops to 9, but even with the bad press the bears probably believe he will be gone. But if he (or by miracle Tyree Wilson) is available they will take him.
Otherwise they go with Johnson or Skoronski, moving Skoronski to center.
Not sure why people are hating on Martin Melhus so much. His replies are well thought out and written, and he is respectful in his comments. Disagree with him if you have a different opinion, but there is no need to be rude about it.
Point is we have 0 clue what’s going to happen come draft night. I’m not sure Poles does yet either.
A couple of articles ago you wrote that past proof has Poles eying Jalen Carter. This one says he’s eying an OT. We are all grasping at straws at this point. When we think Poles is going to zig he ends up zagging.
This is also why this draft is one of the most anticipated Bears drafts in a long time. Should be fun.