Chuck Pagano decided to retire this year rather than return for a third season with the Chicago Bears. A lot of fans were more than happy with this development. They felt the defense had taken a considerable step back under his watch and it was clearly his fault. What he did to Eddie Jackson alone felt like a crime. Is that entirely fair though? There is new data available that suggests Pagano did more to keep the defense successful than many realize.
Tej Seth and Ryan Weisman of Pro Football Focus did a fascinating study on something that is gaining popularity in the NFL. The use of unique coverages. That is to say which defenses are sticking close to one type of coverage from their secondary and which are mixing them up more often. As it turns out, Pagano wasn’t nearly as vanilla as many accused him of being. He worked hard to mix up his coverages quite often. In fact, only two teams in the NFL had a higher “coverage uniqueness” score than the Bears.
When evaluating this against pass defense rankings from last year?
Teams that were above the 2.0 line in coverage scheme uniqueness tended to have a pretty decent pass defense. L.A. was #1, San Francisco was #4, New Orleans was #5, Baltimore was #6, and New England was #8. The Bears were a respectable #12. This despite a pass rush that produced just 35 sacks last year. Ranking them 17th in the league. That means the secondary coverage played a much bigger role in keeping the pass defense from falling apart.
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Pagano was far from perfect as a coordinator, but he understood the necessity of the modern NFL. Opponents are going to throw the football a lot. The best way to make it difficult on them is to confuse the quarterback as much as possible. That is done through mixing up coverages.
The successor to Chuck Pagano will have to carry on the tradition
Good news? Sean Desai is a disciple of Vic Fangio. As the chart above shows, the Denver Broncos head coach and former Bears coordinator has a long-standing reputation for mixing up his coverages. So one can assume Desai will pick up where Pagano left off. It will just be a question of the types of coverages he’ll play more often. Pagano preferred staying closer to Cover 3 where as Fangio guys usually focus on Cover 4 and Cover 6.
The big challenge will be whether the secondary can handle all the unique calls. Chicago just lost two starters at cornerback from last season in Kyle Fuller and Buster Skrine. That creates a lot of uncertainty with their coverage unit. Jaylon Johnson should be good but the two spots next to him is another story. The Bears will be sorting that out all summer.
Either way, the tradition should carry on.
Chuck Pagano wasn’t perfect, but the man got a little too much criticism. In his time as defensive coordinator, he had to deal with a lot. Akiem Hicks’ injury in 2019. Eddie Goldman opting out last year. Robert Quinn being a complete waste of a free agent signing. Despite all that, the Bears defense remained respectable. Go easy on the guy. He did fine.
