The Justin Fields era will begin at some point in the near future. Until then Andy Dalton will be keeping the seat warm for the Chicago Bears at quarterback. Yet even now there are still some holdouts left wondering. Why didn’t the team just run it back with Mitch Trubisky one more year? He likely wouldn’t have cost as much as Dalton and he finished last season pretty strong.
Then again numbers can always be deceiving. In nine starts last season, Trubisky completed 67% of his passes for 2,055 yards, 16 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. That isn’t terrible. Yet a closer evaluation suggests he should’ve done better. Way better. Recently the analytics firm called Sports Info Solutions did a breakdown of every starting quarterback last season. They determined how often the each passer was on target when throwing from a clean pocket.
Trubisky had by far the lowest on target rate of anybody in the league.
The chart shows that while Dalton isn’t what anybody would consider elite, he was considerably better at throwing an accurate ball when he was supposed to. Even Nick Foles was significantly better. His problem was the offensive line couldn’t provide him enough clean pockets to throw. Trubisky had those solid numbers but this chart suggests he should’ve lit defenses up far more often.
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This is undoubtedly a key reason Matt Nagy decided to pull the plug. He was tired of seeing his quarterback miss the easier plays. Too often he’d see a pass sail over the head of a wide open receiver. Too often he’d see Trubisky take a bad sack rather than throw the ball away. The Bears weren’t going to win games against good teams with somebody like that. No matter how perfect the situation around him.
Mitch Trubisky had enough chances
Was the situation around him always perfect? No. Then again a lot of eventual great quarterbacks can say the same thing. The best ones find a way to be productive even when things aren’t pristine. Trubisky had four seasons to figure things out. He had some bright moments, but was never able to get over his inconsistencies. First it was the lack of weapons. Then the protection and finally the offensive system.
At some point reality has to sink in. Maybe the quarterback just doesn’t have what it takes. Mitch Trubisky is a good kid. He never caused problems and worked hard. Sometimes that just isn’t enough. The rest of the NFL made their opinions on him clear when he failed to earn even one opportunity to compete for a starting job. There may come a day he finally flips the switch, but the Bears couldn’t wait on him any longer.
It was time for a change.
Dalton should be an improvement. How much of one? That remains to be seen. It is Field though that everybody is waiting for. He was one of the most accurate quarterbacks charted in college going back over a decade. If he can translate that to the NFL, there is no telling how much better this offense could end up being.
