Ryan Pace admitted openly before his final press conference before the NFL draft that he wasn’t going to give anything away. Say this for the Chicago Bears GM. At least he’s up front about it. He did his best to answer questions but unsurprisingly there were no huge revelations during the 18-minute session. However, that doesn’t mean there wasn’t an interesting revelation to be found.
It came after a great question about the nature of the Bears’ draft position. This will be the first time in five drafts where Pace won’t have a 1st round pick that is in the top 10. Sitting at #20 presents a new set of challenges he hasn’t experienced before. His comments on this were quite interesting. Especially in regards to the research he conducted on how best to approach this area of the draft.
That was a fascinating idea. Going back 10 years in previous drafts to see if he can determine whether certain position groups tend to hit more often than others. While an innocent comment by itself, it does offer a potential hint about where the Bears might focus their attention presuming they stay at #20. So I decided to follow his example.
I went back at looked at the last 10 years of drafts from picks 18-22. This felt like the proper range with #20 sitting right in the middle. Then I covered every position that can be deemed a “need” for this team. After going through the list of names, a couple of clear favorites emerged.
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QB:
- Johnny Manziel
- Brandon Weeden
WR:
- Demaryius Thomas
- Kendall Wright
- Brandin Cooks
- Nelson Agholor
- Josh Doctson
- Will Fuller
- Jalen Reagor
- Justin Jefferson
OT:
- Anthony Castonzo
- Justin Pugh
- Ja’Wuan James
- Cedric Ogbuehi
- Garrett Bolles
- Andre Dillard
- Austin Jackson
CB:
- Kareem Jackson
- Prince Amukamara
- Desmond Trufant
- Marcus Peters
- Adoree Jackson
- Jaire Alexander
- Damon Arnette
EDGE:
- Adrian Clayborn
- Shea McClellin
- Chandler Jones
- Melvin Ingram
- Bud Dupree
- Shaq Lawson
- Charles Harris
- K’Lavon Chaisson
Looking at this collection of names, it’s pretty clear that wide receiver and cornerback are by far the two most consistent positions in this area of the draft. Thomas, Cooks, and Jefferson became Pro Bowl pass catchers while Agholor and Fuller also became solid targets as well. At cornerback Trufant, Peters, and Alexander became Pro Bowlers. Jackson and Amukamara have enjoyed long careers too.
This could suggest where Ryan Pace and Bears are aiming
Presuming he reached a similar conclusion, then it stands to reason the Bears could be looking at either a wide receiver or cornerback at #20. They certainly have needs at both positions. Allen Robinson has yet to get a long-term extension. Anthony Miller could be traded at any moment. This team does not have a lot of long-term security at that position. Meanwhile, at cornerback, two of their three primary starters from 2020 are gone. Kyle Fuller and Buster Skrine were both released.
Do the Bears want a quarterback? Of course they do. However, the evidence is clear. Waiting for one to fall to them doesn’t end well. Either they will have to move up into the top 10 or bite the bullet and wait for the second wave on Day 2. If the latter ends up being the case, they have to make sure they secure a good player with that first pick. Wide receiver and cornerback give them the best odds.
If one were gauging the odds?
Expect a wide receiver to be the favorite. Ryan Pace knows the Bears have to score more points this season. He also knows whichever quarterback he does end up landing will need weapons in the future. Grabbing one at #20 at least gives the team some added firepower. Andy Dalton throwing to Robinson, Darnell Mooney and a 1st round pick could be fun to watch.
