After four straight seasons of making the postseason, which included three appearances in the National League Championship Series and one seeing a World Series victory, it is difficult to say that a team has a lot of work to do to maintain that success.
For the Chicago Cubs, that is now the case after being eliminated from the 2018 postseason in a 3-1 loss to the Colorado Rockies in the National League Wild Card game that went 13 innings.
For the Cubs to just get to that point, they had to play hurt all year. Names like Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, Pedro Strop, Jon Lester, Brandon Morrow, and others had to miss significant time in stretches throughout the season.
And even with those big names hurt at various times, the Cubs still managed a 95-win season and tied for the best record in the NL through 162 games.
Perhaps injuries will be a big reason why the Cubs faltered in the end. Maybe it will be the 30-straight games they had to play down the stretch due to rainouts earlier in the year. Or it could be that skipper Joe Maddon overused his bullpen heading into the playoffs.
“We’re not injured, we’re not old,” Maddon said after the loss.
It is also possible it could be a combination of all of those reasons.
But, the biggest issue that led to the Cubs 2018 demise, which is going to be a massive problem for Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer to fix, is scoring runs, at least, consistently.
Sure we can look at facts that include the Cubs being ranked ninth in total runs scored (761), tied for third in batting average (.258) and fifth in wins-above-replacement (27.1). But if we dive deeper into the numbers, we find a bleaker situation.
This team had trouble all year stringing together enough games of scoring enough on a consistent basis to win.
Too many times this season, we saw this team put up double-digit runs on the scoreboard in one game and not be able to score like their bats had been set on fire the next.
So let’s have some fun with more math to start fixing these Cubs.
The Cubs were ranked 22nd in homers this year with 167, which is odd considering they have plenty of big boppers in the aforementioned Bryant as well as Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras.
Also, they were 12th in Major League Baseball in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) with 100. The Cubs total team batting average for the season was .249, which is good for only 20th in the majors. Furthermore, they ranked 11th in all of baseball in weighted-on-base-average (wOBA) at .321.
Most games this season with 1 or 0 runs scored:
40 Orioles
39 Cubs
37 Marlins
36 Giants
35 Mets— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) October 1, 2018
But the most jaw-dropping statistic for the Cubs that defines what Epstein and Hoyer do next, is that their team led MLB in runners left in scoring position per game at 3.75, according to Team Rankings.
That needs to get better for this team to return to the level they set back in 2016.
It should be noted the Cubs were ranked last in baseball in that statistic when they won the World Series, but they also racked up more home runs and a better wRC+ that year as well.
So if they do not crush the ball onto Waveland or Sheffield, they probably are not scoring at all.
These are certainly first-world baseball problems that any team that watches nothing but a suckfest game after game would love to have.
Imagine being a Baltimore Orioles fan and instead of worrying about your whole team trying not to suck, there’s only a certain aspect you need to improve upon.
And even then, your team still wins more than 90 games a year.
But this is the standard the Cubs have set for themselves and rightfully so. Epstein and Hoyer have a tough task of finding enough bats to carry the team in the playoffs.
Back in 2011, Epstein made it clear that, “When we build that foundation for sustained success and it ultimately results in a World Series, it’s going to be more than just a World Series.”
Sustained success is what the Cubs have accomplished with many more winning years ahead. As presently constituted, this team is good enough to be among the best in the National League.
But will this team get another MVP-type year from Baez next year? Will this bullpen return to what it was before the month of September?
Those questions and others need to be yes, especially since the status of Bryant’s left shoulder is still a concern. Whether or not he will need offseason surgery has yet to be determined because since changing his swing he has not looked comfortable with it.
It was uncomfortable to watch too. Sheesh.
The builders of this winning team have probably their toughest job ahead of them. Finding enough pieces to manufacture runs consistently when the ball is not flying out of Wrigley Field or any other stadium the Cubs travel to.
Health will play a key role for next season, but so too will the Cubs return to dominance with cracking long-balls and driving in runners more often.
When October hits, all of the work during the MLB regular season means nothing. Anything can happen in playoff baseball because outcomes are varied. Just like winning the lottery.
It is just a matter of raising the odds of being on the winning side of those variances.
