Chicago Bears fans are a nervous bunch. They’re deathly afraid that Mitch Trubisky is a bust as other young QBs find early success in their careers. Given the quarterback legacy this team has, there’s one thing that could be said. There’s virtually no way he could be worse than most of their other high draft choices at that position in the past five decades.
The bottom line is he’s played 15 games. That’s not even a full season yet. In that span, he endured 12 games in one of the most backward offensive systems in the NFL under a head coach who had no idea how to develop a young QB. Now three games into a new system, he’s struggling. Yet people are reacting like he should be setting the world on fire.
There are plenty of reasons why that hasn’t been the case. Inexperience is one. Trubisky is still behind in that department. Another is the complexity and detail of this offense is far more significant, and that can be overwhelming. However, there’s also one other aspect that people haven’t touched on yet.
Favorable opportunities.
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Tampa Bay is the first bottom-ranked pass defense Mitch Trubisky will see
Sometimes when it comes to seeking that breakout game, it’s all about luck. Trubisky hasn’t had much of that. Here’s a stat that might shock some people. In 15 career games thus far, the Bears quarterback has yet to face a bottom five pass defense in the NFL. In fact, he’s only played three of those 15 games against teams that ranked lower than 20th.
vs. Top 20 defenses:
- 186-of-308, 1,892 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INTs, 75.03 rating
vs. Below 20 defenses:
- 82-of-126, 892 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 83.83 rating
People continue to shower love on Jared Goff for his progression as a passer, and that’s totally fair. Yet even he needed that first breakout game. Did his come against a top 20 unit? Nope. As a rookie in 2016, he went 20-of-32 for 214 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Good for a 100.3 quarterback ranking. The team he did it against? The New Orleans Saints who had the worst pass defense in football that year.
Deshaun Watson had his five-touchdown game as a rookie last year against the Kansas City Chiefs, who finished 29th against the pass. It’s not a coincidence that so many of these young quarterbacks find their spark point. Sometimes it’s the luck of the draw on which teams you play against. In this regard, Trubisky hasn;t had it. Not until now.
The Buccaneers defense is tied for last in the NFL against the pass. They’re giving up a whopping 362.7 yards per game with a 7-1 touchdown to interception ratio. Opposing quarterbacks have a 117.1 rating when facing them.
If ever there was a setup that could get Trubisky out of his funk, it’s this. He’ll be at home and going against one of the worst secondaries in the league. As long as he doesn’t press and just plays within the system, the chances are favorable that he can have a big day. Especially if the defense can get after Ryan Fitzpatrick as many predict will be the case.
