When Raiders quarterback Derek Carr was thrashing the league two years ago in leading the Silver & Black to a 12-4 finish, he was king. One leg injury and a mediocre 2017 campaign has many in Raider Nation concerned, which poses in important franchise question: Is Derek Carr the future for the Raiders?
Before you go all “Black Hole” on me for asking this pertinent question, it’s hard to ignore. Carr still hasn’t looked the same since he broke his fibula against the Colts. After two straight seasons of almost 4,000 yards passing and 30 or more touchdowns, Carr regressed in 2017 with just 3,496 yards and just 22 scores. His quarterback rating fell more than 10 points from 2016 to 2017.
While it may seem premature to ask these types of questions, it’s not entirely off-base. The eye test has many fans frustrated. Under new head coach Jon Gruden, Carr is expected to excel. He has the weapons, a strong running game and a solid offensive line. But does he have the humble swagger and confidence he showed before the injury or is he hearing footsteps and a Joe Naimath-like crunch in his subconscious? A quarterback who doubts his ability and second-guesses himself is as dangerous to an offense as a fighter pilot who flies scared.
Carr has earned the right to struggle
Before you start jumping off the Carr bandwagon, take into consideration most quarterbacks can have a down year after injury. While Carr may not be Andrew Luck, who has been given an exorbitant amount of time to get his game back, the fifth-year QB has done enough to be given some leeway with which to struggle. The broken fibula was a back-breaker for the 2016 season but also a shot to his sense of invincibility.
A career 87.5 QB rating and 15,000 passing yards in four seasons is a strong start. More is his leadership. Carr is always leading from the front, not pointing from the back. He has earned his teammates’ respect and is a quality person on and off the field. He even adjusted his pay structure within his $125 million extension through 2022 so the Raiders could also afford to pay Khalil Mack and Gabe Jackson. Mack, of course, is sitting out the preseason and hasn’t practiced once with the team due to his contract holdout.
The Raiders haven’t really made good on Carr’s goodwill gesture.
“I’d say, ‘That’s awesome, but is it good for Gabe? Is it good for Khalil?’” said Carr, in his press conference after signing the deal. “Hurting the team is the last thing I wanted to do…I wasn’t chasing every dime. You can’t pay me a better compliment than to tell me you trust me with the keys to this thing”
The magic of 2016 should still be fresh on Raiders fans’ minds. The team was an injury away from becoming the Cinderella of the ball, albeit a tattooed, beer-guzzling, sometimes toothless version of the Disney princess. With Amari Cooper refocused, Jordy Nelson playing like he’s 25 (according to reports), and with Marshawn Lynch poised to continue his excellent second half of 2017, Carr could easily recapture that magic once again.
What if Carr doesn’t recapture the magic?
His contract is too bloated to trade away, if he struggles for a second-straight season. If the Raiders thought trading away Mack prior to his big payday was difficult, imagine how hard it would be to pawn Carr and his contract off on another QB-desperate franchise. Still, two straight seasons below expectations will stir the pot more than it already has.
Derek Carr is a dollar-store Philip Rivers with a lower sperm count. The Raiders suck: https://t.co/V63dLXJUYW pic.twitter.com/CzIzMvxTor
— Deadspin (@Deadspin) August 10, 2018
"Gruden is just, he is cruising for just getting hurt all year. That team's going to be horrible. And Derek Carr is like way worse than he thinks Derek Carr is too. They suck." – From @DavisMattek on his podcast The TaekCast. https://t.co/1thQGhEYA2
— One Sec Benny (@onesecbenny) August 1, 2018
Raider fans are notoriously fickle and why not? Oakland-based Raiders fans are on the verge of being dumped not once, but twice, by the Davis family as the franchise dips out of the Bay area and heads to Vegas in 2020 or sooner. If Carr struggled early, I wouldn’t be shocked if the fan base started turning on him like Fredo Corleone when he wasn’t given control over “The Family’s” Vegas casinos.
What is an acceptable season for Derek Carr and the Raiders?
While much of the training camp talk lingered on Mack and his contract dispute, Carr has been relatively protected due to the distraction. That said, a bad defense could create the appearance of a bad season when, in actuality, he was playing behind the eight-ball all along due to a porous defense.
The great ones find ways to win, even when they don’t have their A-Game. To do that, a QB needs a defense to keep the score in moderation. Just like a bad QB and offense can exhaust a defense by leaving it on the field too long, a defense that can’t stop the opposition from reaching pay dirt is just as detrimental.
It changes the game plan and forces the quarterback to predictably throw almost every down. Not only does it make it easier to defend, it also puts Carr at risk of another injury as defensive coordinators dial up as many blitz packages as they can to hit the quarterback. If he’s chasing the dragon every game, his stats are going to suffer and, just like a coach, wins and losses fall on the QB, like it or not.
Ask Colin Kaepernick, who lost his last 11 starts and hasn’t taken a meaningful snap ever since despite pretty decent stats. While I don’t see Carr losing 11 straight, getting benched for Blaine Gabbert (don’t get me started on how bad the Raider backup QBs are), and starting a cultural movement, the seed of doubt could create a toxic environment. Every mistake and errant pass will cue pissy fans’ ire and the boos will start to rain down after every mistake, justified or not.
It could turn Carr, a talented passer, into the Oakland version of Jay Cutler in just one season.
It won’t happen, Raider Nation
Relax, Silver & Black faithful. It’ll never happen. Carr is on the verge of a comeback season that will return him to the upper tier of NFL quarterbacks. Cooper and Nelson will combine for 2,500 receiving yards, Carr will finish with 30-35 touchdown passes and the Raiders will fight their way through a winnable division.
Either way, Carr has earned the right to struggle. Raider fans need to remember how difficult it is to land a franchise quarterback in today’s NFL. They are few and far between, littered with the Johnny Manziels, Jake Lockers, and Tim Tebows of the football world. Carr isn’t one of them.
He’s elite, but he needs a defense to help him protect the football and implement Gruden’s game plan without turning it into an arena league football game. Pay Mack and honor the commitment Carr gave when he structured his contract so his defensive captain and his best offensive weapon (Cooper) can get paid too.
Anything less is setting Carr up for failure.
