With only two games remaining before the All-Star break, the Cubs find themselves in a place they haven’t seen too often during the 2018 season — the top of the division. After last night’s dramatic win over San Diego, paired with Milwaukee’s loss to Pittsburgh, the Cubs vaulted the Brewers in the standings and found themselves at the top of the division for only the sixth time this season.
The Cubs being tied for first at this point of the season is pretty impressive when you realize they did it despite the obstacles thrown their way (injuries, stars under performing, Tyler Chatwood throwing baseballs) but yet again, the Cubs pulled some late inning magic to get a big win last night in San Diego.
The come from behind win was the team’s 28th of the season, which ties them for the MLB lead, and was highlighted by Javier Baez scoring the winning run from first base in extra innings as the Padres kicked the ball around. Yes, the Padres looked like idiots here but you can’t take away the fact this was brilliant base running by Javy yet again.
Javy doing Javy things! #ElMago pic.twitter.com/8Eh8BfB6o2
— Adam Nissen (@nissen54) July 14, 2018
The 2018 “Cardiac Cubs” remind me a lot of the 2016 “We Are Good” team for obvious reasons. One reason that I don’t think fans really understand is despite the up’s and down’s of the first half, the 2018 team is right on pace to win a comparable amount of games as 2016. Through 91 games, the 2018 team has only two fewer wins (53) than the 2016 team did (55) and when you take into consideration how well the team plays in the second half of the season, the rest of the NL Central could be in trouble.
The two-time defending National League Central champions have built a reputation of playing their best baseball in the second half of the season. When you look at the team’s resume of second half success under manager Joe Maddon, it’s hard not to get excited thinking about what this years team will do after the All-Star Break.
Cubs Second Half Records (2015-2017)
(2015): 50-25
(2016): 50-23
(2017): 49-25
The team’s average win percentage over that three-year period is .671% which is pretty damn good in general but when you look at the remaining schedule for the second of 2018, it’s hard to think that the Cubs won’t have an even BETTER second half than they’ve historically had.
The Cubs will play 41 of their 69 second half games in Chicago (3 of which are at the White Sox). They'll only play 31 games on the road total, with 8 of those coming against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers.
— Brad (@ballskwok) July 13, 2018
The Cubs currently have a .651 win percentage at Wrigley Field so playing that many home games in the second half bodes well for the Cubs. As a Cubs fan, I have nothing but optimism for the second half of the season. When you look at the team’s resume from the past three seasons, a favorable schedule, and figure that a healthy Yu Darvish will be back at some point, things are looking very promising on the North Side of Chicago.
Which is pretty much the complete opposite of how things look in Milwaukee.
The Brewers have played great baseball for the first half of the season and have gotten some outstanding individual performances during that time (I’m looking at you Jesus Aguilar.) The additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yellich have bolstered a Brewers offense that ranks second in the NL in home runs and their pitching staff leads the NL in wins and BAA which has led them to a National League-high 55 wins.
However, they have begun to scuffle as of late. They’ve lost five of their last seven games and will play three more games in the next two days finishing off a brutal part of their schedule just before the All-Star break. The bad news for Brewers fans is that it’s not going to get much easier the rest of the month.
Not counting the All-Star break, the Brewers have no scheduled off days in the month of July and they’re next scheduled off day isn’t until August 6th.
Why is this important?
Well, some people are starting to think the Brewers may be running out of gas already. After last night’s loss to Pittsburgh, manager Craig Counsell had this to say,
Asked point-blank if his team looks tired right now, #Brewers manager Craig Counsell said, "We're 90 games in. We've got 70 games to play. It's not time to be tired."
— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 14, 2018
Translation: We’re tired.
And unlike the Cubs second half success, the Brewers have historically struggled post All-Star break.
Brewers Second Half Records (2015-2017)
(2015): 30-42
(2016): 35-40
(2017): 36-35
Obviously I’m assuming both teams will continue their three-year trends for the second half and there’s nothing saying that those trends won’t break this year. However, it’s hard for me to ignore the fact that the Cubs are where they before they’ve really played their best baseball and with all the lineup juggling Joe Maddon has done to ensure his players will be as fresh as possible during the dog days of summer, I like where the team is at. Until Milwaukee can prove they can keep up their pace after the All-Star break, I have to believe that the Cubs will begin to pull away with the division at some point in the second half.
Add to that, a very favorable post All-Star break schedule for the Cubs, the second half of 2018 is shaping up to be the best one under Joe Maddon yet.
Second half prediction: 48-21.
