Allen Robinson has his share of critics these days. Most view him as a one-year wonder to this point in his career. A talented receiver who dominated in 2015 (1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns) before falling back to earth in 2016 and then tearing his ACL last year. Some think his great season was a fluke and the following one was closer to who he truly is. Robinson was a #2 masking himself as a #1.
Is this true? Was the regression in ’16 inevitable? Most point to a key stat from that season. He was thrown the exact same number of passes as the year before (151) but caught seven fewer of them for just 883 yards and six touchdowns. It’s clear Robinson just struggled to catch the ball, right?
Well, not necessarily. I dug a little deeper in that season for the Jaguars to see if there was an alternate explanation. One happened to surface thanks to a stat from Sportingcharts.com. It detailed something called bad pass percentage.
“Quarterback Bad Pass Percentage measures the percentage of a quarterbacks pass attempts that were considered to be poorly thrown (otherwise known as un-catchable) and leads to an incompleted pass.”
Upon reviewing the numbers, a revelation came to light. One that exonerates Robinson of his down year in 2016.
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Allen Robinson suffered from “Bortles Syndrome” that year
The source of the problem may, in fact, have not been Robinson but his quarterback instead. Blake Bortles had a terrific year in 2015 but floundered in every way the next season. A key part of why centers on his passing accuracy. According to the numbers, 104 of the 625 passes threw were uncatchable. A percentage of 16.64. That was a significant spike from the previous year when it stood at 15.51%.
Robert McClain on Allen Robinson. Plays him well, ball thrown too far out of bounds (unfortunately for one man too close to the sideline) pic.twitter.com/9iBQd0Iq03
— PewterReport (@PewterReport) August 15, 2017
Robinson was clearly frustrated with Bortles throughout 2016 and it’s becoming clear why. His passes weren’t giving the receiver as much of a chance to make plays. Before people condemn the numbers, here’s an interesting comparison.
Aaron Rodgers threw a staggering 111 bad passes in 2015 for a 19.41% rate. He was 30th in the NFL and finished with just 3,821 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. The next season that number dropped to 15.90%. His final numbers were 4,428 yards, 40 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. So there is a clear, tangible difference when he was more precise with his throws.
This not only proves Bortles was much more off in 2016, it helps to reinforce the confidence the Bears had in signing Robinson. He wasn’t the problem that year. Give him a quarterback that can put the football where it needs to be and the odds favor him being that dominant force he was three years ago.
