Week Five’s Thursday Night Football matchup features a pair of teams sitting pretty at 3-1 in the early stages of the 2020 NFL season. Going strictly by their records, this is a game that would be highly anticipated as a primetime showdown between two good teams. However, records can be deceiving.
The Buccaneers come into Soldier Field Thursday night after a five-touchdown passing performance by QB Tom Brady during a 38-31 come-from-behind win against the Los Angeles Chargers in week four. Meanwhile, The Bears come off a brutal 19-11 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts, in which they were only able to muster 269 total yards and a measly 28 rushing yards.
The Bucs sport the eighth-ranked offense in the NFL after 4 weeks, averaging 30.0 pts/g. While it took a while for Brady to get in sync with his new team, a switch seems to have been flipped after his offensive explosion last week. Tampa Bay’s passing attack ranks ninth in football, with WR Mike Evans snagging five touchdowns already early in the season. Their rushing attack has been a little tamer, ranking just 27th in the league. RB’s Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have combined for just three TD’s and only 97.8 rushing yds/g.
The Bears seem to be following the same blueprint they always do. Scrape by on offense and let the defense win games for you. While the offense is ranked a putrid 25th in the league, the defense has once again been brilliant at limiting points for opposing teams. Sitting at seventh in points against, the Bears are a top 10 defensive unit for the third straight season through four weeks. While linebacker Khalil Mack garners most of the attention from NFL offenses, CB’s Kyle Fuller and rookie Jaylon Johnson have been overlooked this season. Fuller has been targeted 27 times and has allowed just 10 completions for 125 yds and 1 TD in four games. QB’s hold a passer rating of 49.2 when throwing at Fuller. His counterpart has been equally as impressive. Johnson has been targeted 29 times and has allowed 12 completions for a total of 189 yds and 0 TDs. QB’s own a 63. 7 passer rating when throwing at the rookie. Chicago boasts the ninth-best passing defense in the NFL, but only 16th in rushing.
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Game Information
NFL Week 5 – Thursday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 1-1 Away) vs. Chicago Bears (3-1, 1-1 Home)
Date: Thursday, Oct. 8, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Soldier Field — Chicago, IL
Coverage: FOX/NFL Network
Spread and Odds
All spreads, odds, totals, and props available via Fanduel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: TB: (-245) | CHI: (+200)
Spread: TB: -5.5 (-115) | CHI: +5.5 (-105)
Total: 44 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages via oddsFire: TB: (82%) | CHI: (18%)
Odds to Win Super Bowl LV: TB: (+1500) | CHI: (+4800)
Betting Insight
Spread:
The main story of this game will be the Super Bowl 52 rematch between Nick Foles and Brady. Each QB is on a new team in a different city, but each team is 3-1, and this game could have major impacts on the playoff race in the NFC. At -5.5, it’s clear the oddsmakers favor the newly potent Tampa Bay offense and the Bucs, being they are such large favorites on the road.
This game is fascinating from a betting standpoint because you’re supposed to bet on the Bears in this one getting +5.5 against the Bucs. The game is about a field goal difference when you consider all player personnel, injuries, and previous game lines. The number in this game has gone up, which is unsurprising considering the Bears have looked awful at times this season. It opened at +3 (-110), but betters would have had to have been on it immediately as the lines opened to get that number. At -5.5, look at the Bucs as a good play here.
Moneyline:
When betting a team on the money line, you have to consider the probability the oddsmakers are giving each team to win. At -245, the oddsmakers are giving the Buccaneers about a 68% chance to win the game, while Chicago has roughly a 36% chance of victory. These numbers clearly don’t add up to 100%, but this accounts for the “juice” pumped into the odds. Only bet the money line if you are very confident in a team to pull off the win, as you have no points to work with here.
Total:
In week four, these teams had two very different offensive performances. The Bears scored a lackluster 11 points against the Colts, while Tampa Bay scored in droves to the tune of 38 against the Chargers. Bears/Colts combined for a low 30 combined points while Bucs/Chargers combined for a whopping 69. With a total of 44, this is one of the lowest projected totals of week 5. On an October night at Soldier Field with two top-10 defenses in play, look at the under here as a strong play during a season where totals have flown over.
Odds Analysis:
The Bears shot out of the gate to a very surprising 3-0 record, but have faced setbacks and have shown obvious imperfections during their 3-1 start. Two miraculous double-digit comebacks against the predictable Lions and the winless Falcons and a late-game defensive stand against the hapless Giants are all that separates this team from 0-4. Last week, they failed to score a touchdown until the last drive of the game in garbage time.
The Buccaneers meanwhile, have won three straight games after losing their opener against the New Orleans Saints. Brady tossed 5 TD’s in his last game and may get deep threat receiver Chris Godwin back from injury Thursday night. The public will back the Bucs here.
Public Money:
According to oddsFire, a massive 82% of the money is heading towards Tampa Bay for this game. Expect this line to go up further and wait to see if you can get that key number of +6. Five is a dead number in betting, while six allows for either two field goals difference, or even a missed PAT to get you at a push at worst. Also, monitor whether Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin is active or inactive as we get closer to the game. His activation may push this number even further.
Player Props:
As of the time of this writing, player props have yet to be released. They usually appear the day of the game or the night before. Some players to look at here for Tampa Bay are Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette over rushing yds. With the Bears being so stingy against the pass, look for the Bucs to get their running game on track in this one.
As for the Bears, they may need to go through the air here as the Bucs have the second-best rush defense in the NFL. Anthony Miller has fallen out of favor with coach Matt Nagy with his inconsistency and dropped passes. Rookie wideout Darnell Mooney has gotten much more involved in the offense as such, and I think you will be able to get good value with his receiving yds over.
Final Thoughts and Betting Trends
The Buccaneers are clear favorites in this game, as they rightfully should be. That being said, if you can get +6 with the Bears, you will get good value with an underdog at home. The under total is also a strong play with top-10 defenses at work. Expect the Buccaneers to win, but the Bears are a strong value at anything +4 and up.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook,
– The total has hit the over in 15 of Tampa Bay’s last 18 games dating back to 2019.
– Tampa Bay is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five road games.
– Chicago is 4-12 ATS in its last 15 games dating back to 2019.
– The total has hit the under in six of Chicago’s last seven home games.
Predictions
This is a game that will come down to which Foles we get on Thursday. Against Atlanta in week three, Foles came in after QB Mitch Trubisky was benched for performance-based reasons. Down 26-10, he led a ferocious Bears comeback with 3 TD’s and 188 yds passing in only about a quarter and a half to win 30-26 over Dan Quinn’s helpless Falcons. However, in last week’s loss to the Colts at Soldier Field, Foles was less than efficient. He threw for 241 yds, 1 TD, and 1 INT in a performance that was much worse than those stats indicate. Over the years, we have come to know the former Superbowl MVP for these hot/cold streaks. With Matt Nagy still dialing up the offensive game plan, and with Foles still getting acquainted in the offense, we think it will be another low-scoring affair in the windy city. Bucs win 23-20.
How to Bet on the Game
There are a few ways to bet on the game using DraftKings, FanDuel, or PointsBet.
However, we would highly recommend you use PointsBet for this game. They have a 
promotion running where you can bet on the Bears at +86 (celebrating the 1986 Super Bowl), so as long as Brady doesn’t beat the Bears by 87 points, you WIN.
It’s all legit too. PointsBet recently became the Bears’ official betting partner and they have an awesome app.
