The Chicago Bears of 2020 are a hard team to pin down. Nobody is entirely sure who they are. While they have talent in a lot of areas, their run to a 4-1 record was anything but smooth. Included were two double-digit 4th quarter comebacks, a goal-to-go stand, and a one-point victory over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on four days rest.
They deserve credit for battling their way to this point, but it’s hard for a lot of people to take them seriously as contenders. Aaron Schatz, an analytics expert for Football Outsiders, explained why. Typically teams with a DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in the negative percentages don’t have great records.
The Bears are clearly a huge anomaly. According to him, their -7.2% DVOA is the second-worst for a 4-1 team since 1985. That’s the bad news. The good news? The worst team on that list was the 2010 Bears, who as we all remember came mere minutes away from reaching the Super Bowl that season.
As promised, here are the worst 4-1 teams in DVOA history (since 1985). This isn't necessarily bad news for Chicago, most of these teams ended up making the playoffs and some (ATL 1995 and 1998) improved significantly after their "slow starts." #DaBears pic.twitter.com/olNOwk12Z7
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) October 12, 2020
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Chicago Bears aren’t perfect but they’re good enough
It really is pretty fascinating how similar the two teams actually are. Both had stout defenses from front to back. Julius Peppers off the edge in 2010 and Khalil Mack this year. Charles Tillman at corner and Kyle Fuller now. Neither unit had a notable weakness and both were well-coached and disciplined.
Offensively was a different story. Jay Cutler had his ups-and-downs 10 years ago. He stood behind an offensive line at allowed 56 sacks. Matt Forte was steady at running back while Greg Olsen, Devin Hester, and Johnny Knox made a decent trio in the passing game. One could argue the 2020 team is considerably better. While David Montgomery is no Forte, the combo of Jimmy Graham, Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller is an upgrade.
As for Nick Foles? He isn’t as gifted as Cutler was, but he’s a far better leader and has already proven he can win in big games. Could that prove the key difference if these two teams run a parallel course? Bears fans can only hope.