Jimmy Graham signing with the Bears back in March was met with almost universal confusion. A team desperate for help at tight end poured $8 million per year into a guy who was about to turn 34-years old. To most, it was just another baffling move at the position by Ryan Pace who hasn’t found a viable solution since he took the team over in 2015. With Super Bowl odds hovering at around +$6700 according to betchan.com online casino, it is fair to wonder if this move helped or hurt their chances of becoming a legitimate threat.
Well, there is always a deeper story as to why players of his caliber see their production dip. Understand it has nothing to do with physical ability. Graham may not be quite as fast as he once was but he can still run. One question people fail to ask is was Graham getting open or not? The answer is yes he was. The problem is Aaron Rodgers didn’t look his way a lot.
Take Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings for an example. After reviewing the film, there were eight instances where Graham was open but Rodgers either did not see him or didn’t look his way in the first half alone. The two times he actually threw it to him? One was a lame duck while being tackled and the other sailed out of bounds. Those were the only two times Graham saw a ball come his way in the game.
This is what the tight end had to deal with. People can blame age all they want. It’s hard producing when you’re not even the quarterback’s third read sometimes.
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Other stats back this Jimmy Graham reality up too
The typical stats may not be flattering to Graham, but a deeper dive changes things. For example, of the 60 targets he did receive in 2019, only 73% of them were deemed catchable. That was good for a distant 36th in the NFL. This on top of only getting 11.5% of the teams’ total share of targets. By contrast, Trey Burton’s target share in 2018 was 15.3%.
Then there is target separation. When running routes, Graham managed to create an average of 1.81 yards of separation. Good for 11th in the league. Rodgers had a healthy 97.8 passer rating when throwing the ball his way too. There is a reason the Bears still believe this guy can produce. It’s because he has when given opportunities.
In the playoffs, he was targeted nine times between two games. He caught seven passes for 108 yards. That included 59 against San Francisco, one of the best defenses in the league.
It’s fair to say the Bears aren’t getting the Graham of seven years ago. However, to say he can’t give them what they’ve sorely missed at tight end isn’t true. If they actually involve him in the game plan on a regular basis, he’ll produce results.