Monday, March 25, 2024

Here’s the Cost if Bears Want To Jump Into the 1st Round Next April

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The Chicago Bears are looking at the prospect of going two-straight drafts without a 1st round pick. Something that doesn’t always bode well for a team in the long-term. This has left the inevitable question open. Would they consider moving up from the higher from their 2nd round picks to secure a spot at the bottom of the 1st round? Well considering Ryan Pace is their GM and he’s never shown an unwillingness to move up, this is definitely a possibility.

The problem is it will cost something to make that move. Most often another draft pick at least. Maybe more depending on how high they’d want to go. As of right now, the Bears are projected to hold the #45 pick in the 2nd round next year. That along with the #52 pick courtesy of the Oakland Raiders from the Khalil Mack trade. Depending on how the season finishes, the value of those picks could improve. So this would make the idea of jumping into the top 32 much easier.

Looking back over recent drafts, here are examples of teams doing just that and what it cost them to do so.

  • Falcons trade #45 pick and 3rd rounder (#79) to Rams for 31st overall
  • 49ers trade #37 pick, 4th rounder, and 6th rounder to Chiefs for 28th overall
  • Vikings trade #40 pick and 4th rounder (#108) to Seahawks for 32nd overall

So if the Bears wanted to do this right now, it would likely cost a 3rd round pick to pull off. Something they do not have. If they were to sneak up the board a bit to #40 the cost would drop a bit to the 4th round range. Currently, they are projected to secure a 4th round compensatory pick for the loss of Adrian Amos this past offseason.

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Chicago Bears have ways to make this idea work

This isn’t an entirely crazy idea. There are certain methods that Pace could employ to make such a strategy work. The most obvious? He moves up from #45 to the bottom of the 1st to get his guy. Then he trades back from #52 towards the bottom of the 2nd round to recoup the pick(s) he lost. It’s something he’s done before. In 2016 he gave up a 4th round pick to grab Leonard Floyd. Then he moved back twice in the 2nd to secure three 4th rounders before drafting Cody Whitehair.

There’s also the possibility he could include a player in the trade discussions to replace the extra pick. Cordarrelle Patterson, Leonard Floyd, and Tarik Cohen will all be in the final year of their respective deals in 2020. Each has value as a player that could be worthwhile to another team. Packaging them with the higher 2nd might be enough to get into the 1st without surrendering another pick.

None of this guarantees the Bears are going to actually trade into the 1st round next April. However, given where they sit at present the possibility is definitely there and the cost wouldn’t be too prohibitive if that’s the course of action they wish to take.

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