Thursday, March 28, 2024

A Name To Keep In Mind As Cubs Look For Starting Rotation Help? Jon Gray

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As you look beyond the Cubs’ 2020 starting rotation fans will immediately notice that only two spots are taken as of now. Jose Quintana and Tyler Chatwood are in the final years of their contracts next season, while Jon Lester’s guaranteed six-year deal will also be up. So yeah, they’re going to need to add to their pitching staff during the next two offseasons.

Theo Epstein has already talked about the Cubs possibly dipping their toes in the free agent market this winter, albeit not at the top tier of free agency, to add a starter.

While the Cubs aren’t expected to be big spenders this offseason there’s been plenty of talk about the front office getting creative to make the roster a viable contender in 2020, while bringing in players that will hopefully be a part of the next core too.

So, the Cubs need a starting pitcher, who preferably won’t cost much in salary and trade capital, while also providing some high upside.

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Enter Rockies’ right-hander Jon Gray.

The 28-year-old has two years left of arbitration before he becomes a free agent. In 2020, Gray is projected to earn almost $6 million.

The Rockies are bad. Really bad. They have several awful contracts and are definitely thinking about trading Gray, to maximize his value now.

Gray’s career 4.46 ERA and 1.33 WHIP don’t scream, “trade for this guy,” but he has all the tools to fulfill his potential. In 2019, he made 25 starts and 26 appearances overall, posting a 3.84 ERA in 150 innings, while recording a 50.4% ground ball rate.

In his career, Gray has a 3.77 FIP and 3.62 xFIP, indicating he’s had some bad luck behind him. Regardless of the numbers, Gray’s stuff is easy to fall in love with.

His 96mph fastball is paired up with a nasty slider, which was rated ahead of Gerrit Cole’s slider in 2019 in pitch value.

Since Gray’s first full MLB season in 2016, he ranks 20th among all starting pitchers with a 12.5 fWAR, and 16th overall among starters who have pitched at least 600 innings during the past four seasons.

Of course, there are flaws with Gray as there are with most players.

The right-hander has dealt with injuries throughout his time with the Rockies, missing the beginning of 2016 because of a strained abdominal muscle and in 2017 Gray was out with a stress fracture in his left foot. In 2019, Gray did not pitch in the final month of the season, as he had surgery to repair that stress fracture in his left foot.

Gray is expected to go through a regular offseason despite the foot surgery.

Inconsistency has also followed Gray, who at one point was demoted to Triple-A for a month during the middle of 2018 and was left off Colorado’s playoff roster against the Brewers that year as well.

  • 2016 (29 starts, 168.0 IP): 4.61 ERA, 3.60 FIP; 3.6 WAR
  • 2017 (20 starts, 110.1 IP): 3.67 ERA, 3.18 FIP; 3.3 WAR
  • 2018 (31 starts, 172.1 IP): 5.12 ERA, 4.08 FIP; 2.5 WAR
  • 2019 (25 starts, 150.0 IP): 3.84 ERA, 4.06 FIP; 2.9 WAR

But there have been more than just flashes of Gray being a good starting pitcher and that’s why when you search his name almost every team in need of rotation help is linked to him.

No matter how many teams are interested in trading for Gray the Cubs should be one of them. This front office also has the added bonus of heavily scouting Gray back in 2013, when he was drafted third overall by the Rockies. As we know, Kris Bryant was picked second overall by the Cubs.

So, we’ll see just how much Gray is in demand and if the Cubs can find a match with the Rockies. As of now, there’s the usual rumors, but no specifics on what Colorado may be looking for in return.

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