Thursday, March 28, 2024

NFL Analytics Project Eddie Jackson Will Dominate 2019

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The Chicago Bears have the best defense in the NFL. The stats are there to prove it. However, that was 2018. It’s a new year and a new season. If they wish to hang on to their crown, they’ll have to go about proving it again. They certainly have the talent to do so. Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks are stars. Kyle Fuller is heading that way. Roquan Smith and Bilal Nichols are ascending. Eddie Goldman is underrated. So many of these guys could play even better this season. However, Eddie Jackson is the one getting the most hype.

NFL analytics expert Cynthia Frelund is jumping all in on the young safety this year. One season after making All-Pro. A year where he delivered six interceptions and scored three defensive touchdowns. Hopes are high that he can duplicate that success this season. Frelund believes that is not only probable but virtually certain.

“No safety projects to increase his team’s win-share more than Jackson. This would mean repeating as the highest win-driver at the position for the second straight season, something that has yet to occur in my model. Pro Football Focus had the Bears All-Pro safety allowing a 52.8 passer rating in coverage last season (third among 47 safeties with at least 30 targets). I’ll add to that …

If you measure targets defended plus catches allowed that didn’t net the opposing offense a first down or touchdown, Jackson ranked first by more than 5 percent (among the same 47 safeties). Despite having a new defensive coordinator in Chuck Pagano, Jackson’s ability to operate in this defense remains the same (and thus, so does his fantasy impact on opposing pass catchers).”

Bears have Eddie Jackson in ideal position for career year

The situation that Jackson finds himself in couldn’t be better for a safety of his type. With that front seven able to do all the heavy lifting in run defense, he’s free to do what he does best. That’s to roam the back end waiting for opportunities to pounce on mistakes by the quarterback. He did it six times last year and would’ve had seven if not for a penalty against Arizona. The crazy part is the arrival of Pagano might make him even better.

One must remember this is a man who helped transform Ed Reed into a Hall of Famer and arguably the best safety in NFL history. He got 10 interceptions out of Anthony Henry in 2001 and got a career-high eight out of two-time All-Pro Nnamdi Asomugha in Oakland. Defensive backs are what Pagano knows better than any other position. Giving him a talent like Jackson might as well be like giving Da Vinci a canvas and a brush.

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