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Theo Epstein has talked about how the end of 2018 left a bad taste in the mouth of the Cubs. Players are motivated more than ever to prove last season was just a blip on the radar and if they needed any bulletin board material for 2019, Baseball Prospectus has provided plenty of it.
Last week Baseball Prospectus released its yearly PECOTA projections and it had the Cubs finishing in third place in the division this season.
Here’s how the projections are calculated.
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PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is BP’s proprietary system that projects player and team performance
PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.
When the projected standings were first released, the Cubs were predicted to win 82 games. Well, the projections have been updated and if the Cubs needed anymore motivation, PECOTA now has them finishing dead last in the division, with an 80-82 record.
There it is! Cubs currently projected by BP's PECOTA to finish ALONE in LAST place in the NL Central. #BulletinBoard pic.twitter.com/jpj2lKcLLF
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 13, 2019
I’m not big into the whole being a meatball fan, but if the Cubs want to have the biggest chip on the shoulder this season I’d be plenty OK with it.
I need Theo Epstein, Joe Maddon, whoever to make a giant poster of those projected standings and stick it inside the Cubs clubhouse. Use it as motivation. It’s not often that a team that won 95 games just last year can play the underdog card, but that’s exactly what Maddon can use with the Cubs in 2019.
And the players are aware of the projection.
Schwarber was asked about PECOTA projecting Cubs to finish last in NL Central.
"Guess they just want to be different and get some publicity. We know what we have in this room. It *might* happen but I'm betting it won't happen. I don't think [we'll finish last.] Next question."
— Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23) February 14, 2019
I’ve seen a lot of panic from Cubs fans this offseason, but not going after Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, or not pursuing one of the top relievers isn’t going to prevent the Cubs from being a good team. It just means they have less room for error, but we’ve seen this core group of players win the most games in baseball since the start of 2015.
But by all means, have Jon Lester lead the clubhouse in a chant of, ‘FUCK PECOTA!”
