With the regular season now over, the 2019 NFL Draft order is set. The Oakland Raiders will have three first round picks, including the fourth overall. With the draft still months away, Oakland has multiple different ways they can approach their first round.
The most realistic option, at least when it comes to the fourth pick, is to add a defensive player. The Raiders’ defense struggled mightily in 2018, ranking 26th in total defense, 32nd in points allowed per game and 30th in rushing yards allowed per game. As Head Coach Jon Gruden and new General Manager Mike Mayock begin to revamp the Raiders, improving the defense should priority number one.
In a draft class like 2018, that shouldn’t be too hard of a problem. With players such as Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Ed Oliver and Quinnen Williams atop many analyst’s draft boards, the Raiders should be able to land one of the best defensive players in this year’s class.
That is of course only if they decide to prioritize the defense.
While most expect one of those four players to be the Raiders’ first draft pick come April, one NFL Insider has Oakland taking an entirely different stance.
Way too early NFL draft prediction: Oakland trades up to No. 1 and selects Dwayne Haskins.
— Tony Grossi (@TonyGrossi) January 2, 2019
It’s important to note that Grossi is ESPN’s Cleveland Browns’ insider, and that his prediction comes with no true information from sources. However, his idea gives an entirely different look as to how Gruden and Mayock shape their team.
The 2018 season was never supposed to be a year of contention for the Raiders, and Gruden already started his rebuild by acquiring two extra first round picks. Does Grossi’s idea of completely hitting the rebuild button at quarterback make sense, or is it just wishful thinking from one independent insider?
How About Haskins?
Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins has just 22 games of starting experience to his name. However, in that time he has completed 70% of his passes for 5,396 yards and a 54/9 TD/INT ratio.
He has been named the top QB prospect in the draft by many, including Sports Illustrated’s Kayln Kahler. In many different mock drafts, including those of Walter Football, USA Today’s Draftwire and CBS Sports, Haskins is the first QB taken.
In terms of his traits, Kyle Crabbs of the Draft Network credits Haskins’ qualities as a natural thrower and says he does an excellent job of working the pocket.
“Can throw with accuracy to all three levels, setting up receivers favorably for run after catch opportunities. Mobility within the pocket is effective, is capable of sliding in the pocket and adjusting to avoid a rusher. Haskins threads the needle and throws with accuracy, especially between the numbers; beating tight man coverage and placing the ball where only his receiver can catch it.”
In Oakland, Haskins would immediately step in as the team’s QB1. He would give the Raiders as accurate and mobile quarterback who makes the wide receivers around him better.
As Gruden and Mayock look to rebuild Oakland, adding Haskins gives them a quarterback that they brought in and can mold exactly how they want him to perform on the field.
Carr Wreck
While missing out on one of the top defenders could be looked at as a negative in trading up for Haskins, the bigger problem may be the fact they already have a quarterback in place with Derek Carr.
Not only is Carr firmly entrenched as the starter, but he is currently making a little over $25 million a year. Carr ranks as the sixth highest paid QB in the league. It’s important to note that Carr’s dead cap hit shrinks from $32.5 million to $7.5 million in 2019. However, with almost $20 million guaranteed in March, it’s unlikely that teams would be willing to take on Carr’s contract.
That being said, Carr showed some flashes in 2018, despite struggling at first to learn Gruden’s offense. While his streak of three straight Pro Bowls ended, Carr completed 68.9% of his passes for 4,049 yards and a 19/10 TD/INT ratio. He ranked 12th in passing yards and tied 21st in passing touchdowns.
Both Gruden and Mayock have come out and stated that they are supporters of Carr.
Gruden showered praise onto the then Fresno State quarterback during his famous, “QB Camp” segment.
Upon being hired, Mayock told NFL Network’s Ian Rappaport that he expects Carr to improve if he gets some weapons on the outside. Mayock also had the Raiders trading up for Carr in his 2014 mock draft.
New #Raiders GM @MikeMayock on #Raiders QB Derek Carr: “I had him as a first-rounder coming out.” Says the key is to get pieces around him.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 31, 2018
Carr did not have his best year in 2018 by any means. With division rival Patrick Mahomes throwing for 50 TDs, Carr’s struggles were only highlighted more.
While adding an exciting QB in Haskins could interest the fan base, it could be tough to move Carr and his contract. Gruden and Mayock might be better off trying to improve around Carr rather than replace him all together.
NFL’s Worst Kept Secret
While Carr’s contract may be looked at as undesirable, it’s no secret that having a quarterback on a rookie contract is becoming more and more of a trend in the NFL. By having your quarterback on a cheap rookie-scale contract you’re able to add more expensive contracts elsewhere.
Of the 12 teams in the 2018 playoffs, six have quarterbacks currently on rookie deals. Teams like the Chicago Bears were able to sign Kahlil Mack to a massive extension because they have Mitchell Tribusky for cheap. The same could be said for the Los Angeles Rams as they locked up Brandin Cooks, Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald all while having Jared Goff on a rookie deal.
Looking at teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Cleveland Browns, who have Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield respectively, both are able to build around their franchise QBs. Both have proven to be valuable assets and are now had for cheap.
Having arguably the most important player on the field for less than what he deserves allows for better cap room flexibility. Having an expensive quarterback doesn’t always equal success.
The top 6 QBs by average annual value each failed to make the postseason this year. (h/t @MySportsUpdate) pic.twitter.com/dZNBBxg8xi
— ESPN (@espn) December 31, 2018
In Haskins, the Raiders would be able to tap into that rookie scale goldmine. If Haskins performs how many expect, there is a chance they have a player better than Carr, while also adding stronger pieces around him.
Overall
It’s hard to see the Raiders moving on from Carr. His contract seems way too large for any other team to take on, and Oakland won’t outright drop him. With Mayock giving him support immediately, it seems like Carr will enter the 2019 season as the starting quarterback.
However, if Carr’s struggles continue, there’s no doubt that talk will begin about whether he is the right guy to lead the offense. Especially if the Raiders add explosive weapons around him and he still fails to lead.
It seems that the bigger problem to Grossi’s theory is that the top of the 2018 NFL Draft has too many explosive defensive play makers to pass up on. With the Raiders pass rush being non-existent this season, they need to add someone who can rush the passer.
Overall, Grossi’s prediction seems a bit ridiculous on the outside. It seems at this juncture, the Raiders will be going defense with the fourth overall pick.
But if Haskins impresses during the pre-draft process, or more likely Carr struggles in 2019, there’s a chance Gruden and Mayock could be looking to bring in their quarterback of the future in short order.
