Dhruv Koul answers your Chicago Bears questions in this week’s edition of the Bears Mailbag. Continue the conversation with him on Twitter: @DhruvKoul.
I’m still somewhat recovering from last Sunday’s brutal, overtime loss to the Miami Dolphins. If you missed it, I posted my live reaction Thoughts column after the game … and while it was therapeutic, it sucked to write.
I will say that loss has had me looking forward to Sunday’s showdown with the New England Patriots at Soldier Field even more. Chicago is 3-2 at the moment, and I predicted that they would be 4-2 after six games before the season started. So the Bears need to win against the Patriots to keep pace. But what’s incredible is that Chicago is in control of their playoff destiny after five games. Ideally the Bears would be at least 5-3 by the end of October and firmly in the hunt. That’s still very much doable.
With that, let’s reach into this week’s Bears Mailbag. Thank you to everyone who submitted questions!
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Is Jordan Howard going to get a larger role?
— Dan G. (@dngshouse) October 17, 2018
Jordan Howard has become a very popular topic these days. He was used in a limited role against Tampa Bay three weeks ago, and his usage when compared to Tarik Cohen also differed quite a bit against Miami. Last week, Howard struggled in the first half, including coughing up the football on the Dolphins’ 1-yard line. But he ran hard and successfully in overtime, setting the Bears up for a game-winning field goal attempt.
Howard’s role has been a question mark ever since Matt Nagy was hired. Many think he doesn’t “fit” the scheme in the traditional sense, and I disagree. The reality is, every offense in the league can use a bell-cow, especially one who is an elite runner like Howard. Yes, he’s struggled this year with some of his vision and YPC. But he’s already proven that he is an excellent runner and has improved his pass-catching since last year. He can absolutely contribute at a high level in this scheme, and Nagy has reiterated multiple times that he believes Howard is an integral part of the offense.
I will say that the Bears are a bit more predictable when Howard is the only running back as part of the personnel on the field. Based on the formations and capabilities, defenses seem to have better success countering the Bears’ offense when Howard is alone in the backfield with Mitch Trubisky. I’d really like to see more two-RB sets with him and Tarik Cohen to keep defenses guessing.
One thing to keep in mind is that as the weather gets worse, Howard is going to become a much bigger weapon. He’s been great in the past when the weather has deteriorated, as the Bears have relied on his running ability to move the ball in inclement weather, and he has delivered. I expect that the passing game will suffer a little bit when the temperatures turn frigid, so expect game plans to feature Howard more going forward.
One more thing — the fact that the Bears currently don’t have a single receiver or runner on pace for 1,000 yards at the moment is a departure from the norm. But it’s great. The Bears have been rather productive, especially the last two games, without any one player needing to be the focal point. That’s a sign of a diverse offense with multiple, reliable playmakers. The Bears are much better off for it.
Simple question: what’s the plan to combat Brady’s quick release and hurry up offense ?
— Robert Bade (@rbade00) October 17, 2018
When news broke that the Dolphins were going to start Brock Osweiler last Sunday over the injured Ryan Tannehill, I tweeted this:
If Brock Osweiler plays, the quick game is certain to be in full effect. So the pass rush may not have the effect Bears' fans are hoping for. Strong tackling is going to be critical. https://t.co/wQ7lzO8vnk
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) October 14, 2018
People thought I was an idiot for saying this. How could the immobile and “bad” Brock Osweiler possibly do any damage to the Bears behind an injured offensive line? The Bears had 18 sacks over four games going into last Sunday’s game, which was the most in the league. And they did that without blitzing! How would Brock survive?
They forgot that Adam Gase is a very good coach and game planner, and he wasn’t going to let his backup quarterback sit behind that offensive line and get eaten alive by the Bears’ pass rush. He employed a game plan to give his offensive line help, and ensured (like I predicted) that the ball would be out of Osweiler’s hands quickly. We saw a ton of screens and quick passes designed to get the ball out and into the hands of Miami’s speedy playmakers. As I mentioned, tackling was going to be a huge part of the game. And the Bears failed. And so, they lost.
The reality is, the quick game is the best way to beat the Bears and their pass rush. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers employed it to perfection in the second half of Week 1, and the Dolphins did it last week. And no team has executed the quick passing game quite like Tom Brady and the Patriots over the last 18 years. I tweeted this after the loss in anticipation for the game against New England:
By the way, expect more of the same against New England next week. They aren't going to get pressure on Tom Brady. They better get their tackling cleaned up for next week, or we're in for another long afternoon. Today sucked. https://t.co/tBlb2rdpRA
— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) October 14, 2018
So basically, imagine the offense the Dolphins ran last week, except with Tom Brady at QB. And Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Rob Gronkowski as the weapons. This is an infinitely tougher challenge.
There are a couple ways to approach this game. The first, one could argue, would be to just rush three linemen and drop eight into coverage. This gives the Bears an extra defender to cover various zones. However, eventually, Brady would pick it apart anyway as he’d have all day to throw behind that offensive line. So the other thing they could do is blitz more often than they did against Miami. When they blitzed Osweiler, they had success. So I would hope that they would try again. Of course, they will have to be fundamentally sound in coverage. Expect any blitzing to be accompanied by zone coverage. In fact, I’d be surprised if the Bears played much man at all on Sunday.
There is one more thing the Bears could do to neutralize Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense, but this falls on the Bears’ offense rather than the defense: Score touchdowns on as many drives as possible while possessing the ball a lot.
Is that obvious? Maybe. But that’s likely the best way to win this game. It’s going to be hard to slow down Brady & Co., so I imagine it’ll be another game where the offense has to put up a lot of points and carry the day.
Q: Prediction for Trubisky’s stats against the Patriots? — Kevin M.
I’m fascinated by how Bill Belichick is going to attack Mitch Trubisky in this game. He has a knack for confusing the heck out of young quarterbacks by employing various wrinkles that young QBs haven’t seen on tape. He bottled up Patrick Mahomes last Sunday night in the first half with a strong game plan to confuse him, and it led to two interceptions and numerous missed throws. I expect a similar approach to rattle Trubisky.
The Bears have an opportunity to move the ball on this defense based on schematics and offensive weaponry, but it all depends on how Trubisky performs. I have a feeling things are not going to go as well for Mitch in this game, arm sleeve or not.
Trubisky Prediction: 64% CMP, 230 yards, 6.3 YPA, 1 TD, 2 INT (with another couple near-picks), 4 sacks, 1 fumble.
I really hope I’m wrong.
