Sunday, April 21, 2024

New Calculations on the Mitch Trubisky Trade Reveal Pleasant Surprise

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The New York Jets jumpstarted the 2018 draft hype train following the conclusions of the peak free agency period. This came when they traded the #6 pick and three second round picks to the Indianapolis Colts for the #3 pick. It’s obvious what their intentions are. They’re going after a quarterback. The Chicago Bears can relate. Just last year they conducted a similar maneuver with their Mitch Trubisky trade.

An interesting question to ask is exactly how much did the Jets or Bears give up in their respective deals? Is there a number that can be calculated to offer an idea of what the teams are paying in draft capital to get their QBs? The website Football Perspective created a unique calculation system to figure this out.

It’s based on the famous draft value chart created by former Super Bowl-winning head coach Jimmy Johnson who wanted to assign a numerical value to every single pick in the draft. It soon became a widespread tool for many teams and experts. So how did the Jets end up making out in their deal?

Mitch Trubisky trade proving to be cheaper than other recent blockbusters

“The price to play it safe and ensure that the Jets would get one of their top three options at quarterback was not cheap. In return for the third pick (worth 27.6 points in the Football Perspective Draft Pick Value calculator), New York gave up the sixth pick (worth 23.2 points), the 37th pick (11.6 points), the 49th pick (9.8 points), and a 2019 second round pick. If we assume the 2019 second round pick to be, say, the 40th pick overall, that’s another 11.1 points. Discount it 10% for having to wait a year to lose it, and we can approximate it as worth 10 points.

That’s 27.6 points received in return for trading 54.6 points, which is a whopping 198 cents on the dollar.”

That certainly sounds like a lot. Indeed it is. The only notable trade in recent memory to surpass that in cents on the dollar was the infamous Robert Griffin III deal in 2012, going for 209. In 2016 the Carson Wentz and Jared Goff trades were almost identical at 165 and 164 cents respectively. So how did the Bears make out on Trubisky?

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Better than they did. The Bears reportedly spent 158 cents on the dollar when they gave up two third rounders and a 4th rounder to San Francisco to move from #3 to #2 last year. Some will say they still gave up too much, but GM Ryan Pace at least managed to mitigate as much damage as he could in order to secure the Bears’ future at QB.

With the arrival of Matt Nagy at head coach and Allen Robinson at wide receiver, the team is aiming to make sure the high price was money well-spent.

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