Another season, another slew of Sonny Gray to the Chicago Cubs rumors. The two have seemingly gone hand-in-hand for the last three seasons now, with both sides never coming any closer to making a deal – as far as we know at least.
The likely hold up as been the Cubs unwillingness to part with any of his top-tier minor league talent over the years, names like Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, etc. However, that all changed last July when the Cubs pulled off the Aroldis Chapman trade, sending their top overall prospect SS Gleyber Torres in exchange for the Cuban-flamer thrower, and the deal ended up being enough to win the Cubs their elusive World Series title.
Currently, the Cubs are in need of more pitching, but this time the club is searching for a starter. It’s no secret, while the Cubs may boast a top eight pitching staff in terms of ERA, their starting pitching has been shaky across the board. Jake Arrieta and John Lackey have been roller coasters on the mound, and both look to be leaving Chicago after this season. Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester, while still the two most reliable arms on the staff, have both had some stinker outings in 2017. And Brett Anderson is currently sitting on the DL with a flabbergasting 8.18 ERA in six starts this season. With three starts from Anderson’s replacement Eddie Butler, nobody thinks the Cubs can seriously compete the way things stand currently.
With rumors going around about the Cubs having interest in the Rays Chris Archer, and more recently, former Cub and current Giant Jeff Samardzija it’s clear the Cubs are starting to gauge the available arms on the market as the season progresses. While Chris Archer would be an excellent candidate to help supplement the loss of Arrieta and Lackey, the likelihood of the Cubs pulling off a trade involving the Ray’s ace without losing any MLB talent (Schwarber, Baez, Ian Happ) seems slim. There is Samardzija, who is off to a slow start in San Francisco with a 4.50 ERA, but after his exit from Chicago and the damaged reputation he has on the North-Side a reunion seems far fetched.
But with ESPN’s Buster Olney reporting that Sonny Gray could end up being the top pitching target this trade deadline, listing the Cubs as instant favorites to acquire his talents (included the Astros and Yankees), it could end up being the exact player the front office has been searching for. Gray is finally healthy for the first time since the end of the 2015 season, and he is starting to resemble the All-Star ace the Athletics were hoping to build around. With an 3.34 ERA, 8.49 K/9, and a 58.5% ground ball rate in five starts, Gray should quickly become a hot commodity.
On top of all this, the 27-year-old righty is still under team control for another two seasons, via arbitration. He is currently making roughly $3.5 million in 2017, but if he continues to keep his current pace and health, Gray is going to price himself out of Oakland, giving the A’s GM Billy Beane all the more reason to move him – and the sooner the better.
Gray’s value has been damaged due to his injury history, struggling to stay on the field and when he did return last season, he looked nothing like the guy who ended 2015 with a 2.73 ERA and a 3.7 WAR. Suddenly, Gray’s dwindling value has completely reversed and looks to be erupting at the absolute best time for the Cubs. With the A’s constantly looking to rebuild or retool in hopes of a small window of competing, Beane now finally has his blue-chip trade piece returning to his All-Star caliber form – however Gray might be peaking a bit too early.
If Beane were to wait another two months before dealing Gray, he runs the risk of the right-hander’s productivity falling or sustaining an injury, meaning Gray could be available right now and he might come slightly cheaper than some of the top arms on the market. Who knows if the Athletics will sell-low on Gray, but if Beane has his concerns, the 27-year-old could be on the move sooner rather than later.
Of course there is the injury worries, and those will remain a concern for the remainder of Gray’s career, however Gray could come at a price that doesn’t cost the Cubs any MLB-talent.
@FullCountTommy @sean_sears6 I think this is true, but for Gray I’m not even including Happ. 2.5 years of team control and major risk means no premium pieces.
— Isaac Bennett (@isaaccbennett) May 27, 2017
I also know the Cubs do have a legitimate interest in Gray, and have for a long time, wanting to acquire his talents back in 2014 prior to the Addison Russell deal with Oakland.
FWIW a source told me a few days ago that Gray is definitely an arm the #Cubs have interest in (well, duh) but the injury concerns are real
— Sean Sears (@sean_sears6) May 27, 2017
While it may be too early to say if Sonny Gray to the Cubs is a realistic move, but the longer the Cubs continue to throw Eddie Butler, Brett Anderson, etc., and receive a sub par performance, the likelihood of a massive deal increases. Same can be said for the A’s and every excellent start Sonny Gray has, as Billy Beane looks to sell as high as he can on his injury-prone ace.
