The Chicago Bears don’t have a lot of time to lick their wounds from their first loss of 2020. Four days separate them from a Thursday Night game against the surging Tampa Bay Buccaneers and ageless quarterback Tom Brady. Now the good news is Matt Nagy has a decent track record on short turnarounds.

He won each of them in 2018 and 2019. The only problem is both were against the Detroit Lions. This is a gigantic step up in competition. Not only that but the Bears won’t even have the benefit of a true homefield advantage since no fans are allowed in Soldier Field. Suffice to say the pressure is squarely on the Bears players themselves to show up.

Can they pull off the upset? Here’s the breakdown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGD69Ob4ndY&ab_channel=ChicagoBears

Can the Chicago Bears stem the tide against the Bucs?

Storylines:

Conquering Tom Terrific – Everybody knows the center of attention in this game will be Tom Brady. He’s arguably the greatest quarterback in history and is on track to chase his seventh Super Bowl ring. The Bears are chasing something too. Their first win against him. Brady is a perfect 5-0 against Chicago in his career.

Nick Foles’ timetable – Shifting to the former Super Bowl MVP felt inevitable after the Bears traded for him. However, nobody expected it to happen as fast as it did. Nagy sent a clear message that he feels Foles gives them a better chance to win. Their first start together against Indianapolis did not go as planned. How long until that combo delivers?

Injury updates:

O.J. Howard (Achilles) – The Buccaneers offense already won’t have stud receiver Chris Godwin. Now their top pass-catching tight end is done for the year as well. Howard was third on the team in receiving. His loss puts the focus on Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate. Both of whom have been rather silent to start the season.

Deon Bush (hamstring) – What makes that even more interesting comes with the loss of Bush for the Bears. The safety had become one of their primary options when covering tight ends this year. Now he’s out with a hamstring issue. Who will take over for him? Do they dare leave Danny Trevathan in on 3rd downs? A tough decision.

Key matchups:

Donovan Smith vs. Robert Quinn – The Buccaneers offensive line has played really well for most of this season. A big key to Brady’s ongoing success. However, their left tackle Donovan Smith has had his issues in pass protection from time to time. If ever there was a matchup the Bears’ pricey free agent Quinn can and should exploit, it’s this one.

Darnell Mooney vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting – Tampa Bay has proven rather vulnerable to the deep ball to start this season. The primary culprit is Murphy-Bunting who’s allowed 19 receptions on 22 targets at 13.8 yards a pop. The Bears have come close to hitting their rookie Mooney deep a few times in recent weeks. This matchup could finally yield results.

X-factors:

The Bears offensive line – It would’ve been easy to single out one lineman but that wouldn’t have told the full story. The Bears offensive front five was manhandled by Indianapolis and that’s not an exaggeration. Tampa Bay doesn’t figure to be much easier of a challenge with Shaq Barrett, Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre-Paul incoming. Can they put up a fight this time?

Scott Miller – Nobody brings out the best in slot receivers like Brady. First, it was Wes Welker, then it was Julian Edelman, and now it seems to be Miller. The second-year receiver leads his team with 250 yards. Nine of his 15 catches have resulted in a 1st down. Finding a way to neutralize him will be paramount for the Bears.

Prediction: Buccaneers win 28-17

This just feels like a bad matchup for the Chicago Bears. Tom Brady is adept at eating up zone defenses. Something they’ve run under Chuck Pagano quite a bit. Tampa Bay also has one of the best run defenses in the NFL with two really good edge rushers. They can do what the Colts did last week and force Nick Foles to throw. Unless the Bears make some adjustments, this one doesn’t look favorable for them.