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You know what? There haven’t been any rumors about the Cubs getting actual good players this offseason, so let’s have fun with this one even though we’ll eventually get to how it doesn’t make any sense and most likely isn’t serious.
So, the Cubs might look like a mess this offseason, but whatever their faults are as an organization it’s nothing compared to the Rockies. I mean, right now if the Cubs do nothing else in terms of adding players they’ll still have an OK shot at winning the NL Central and if things go shitty in the first half they can start to make big trades and look forward to more payroll coming off the books in 2021.
The Rockies? They just signed Nolan Arenado to a contract extension last year and they’re already considering trading him away. If they don’t trade him, they’re in a division with the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks who are all way ahead of Colorado at this point. Who the hell knows what the Rockies want to do, but the Arenado trade rumors have picked up since September.
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi followed that up with a report later on Thursday that included this note about the Cubs possibly pursuing Arenado.
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Via MLB.com.
One source said that as many as a half-dozen teams are in contact with the Rockies regarding the possibility of an Arenado trade. The Braves, Rangers and Nationals are believed to be among the group. The Cubs also loom as a possible suitor, especially if they trade former National League MVP Kris Bryant in a move to obtain young pitching.
OK.
The Cubs have said that they want to obviously look beyond 2021, but stay competitive for 2020 as well. You could make the easy argument that if the Cubs thought they wouldn’t be able to retain Kris Bryant on a long-term deal, then trading him for a big haul this offseason AND THEN replacing him at third base with Anthony Rendon would make the Cubs good in the short and long term.
Of course, the Cubs were never in on Rendon, but maybe they really do love Arenado, like it was reported last offseason before the Rockies signed him to the extension.
So yeah, could make sense. Cubs trade Bryant, get a few top prospects, flip a couple of those to the Rockies and they have their new stud third baseman locked up through 2026.
HOWEVER!
What makes anyone think the Cubs are actually operating under the premise that they want to add more money to their payroll this offseason?
It’s become unfortunately clear that instead of upgrading certain spots on the roster this offseason, the Cubs’ plan is to take a step back in 2020 and get below the lowest tier of the luxury tax payroll. Bryant is projected to get about $18 million in 2020. Arenado’s average luxury tax hit on the payroll is $32.5 million. That would be another $14.5 million they’d have to get rid of this offseason even after trading Bryant.
Sure, maybe the Cubs then trade away Jose Quintana and that gets them closer to getting under the luxury tax payroll for next season, but I highly doubt that figuring out how to fit Arenado’s contract into their current lack of financial flexibility is something the front office is considering.
Oh and by the way, Arenado can just opt-out in a couple years.
But hey, want to dream about the Cubs trading for Arenado? Go ahead, have your fun.
