People will say that not every draft pick matters in building a football team. This is true to an extent. However, one could easily argue that every “high” draft pick matters. High meaning the 1st and 2nd rounds. This is typically where the best players in a class are found. If a team misses on too many of those selections over a given period of time, their odds of success drop. If Chicago Bears fans wanted proof, they merely have to look back to the late 1970s and early 1980s.
During a five-season span, GM Jim Finks secured guys like Dan Hampton, Otis Wilson, Matt Suhey, Keith Van Horne, Mike Singletary, Jim McMahon, Jimbo Covert, Willie Gault, and Mike Richardson in the 1st and 2nd rounds. Those players became the foundation of their Super Bowl championship in 1985. Conversely, Ryan Pace is witnessing first-hand what can happen when your great work with free agency, trades, and even late-round hits can be undone by early draft misfires.
If people were looking for a definitive point over the past few years that undeniably decided the trajectory of the Bears’ title hopes, they should look to the 24-hour stretch between April 27th and 28t in 2017. Nobody knew it at the time, but that period proved to be their undoing this season.
Chicago Bears blew supreme chance to fortify the offense
Everybody knows that it all begins and ends with Mitch Trubisky. Pace shocked the football world when he traded up to the #2 pick to get the North Carolina standout. There was no denying the Ohio-native was athletic, strong, and had a live arm. He also had a great work ethic and leadership qualities. He certainly looked like the total package. However, several people had significant reservations about the move.
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A big problem was his lack of experience. Trubisky only started one season for the Tarheels. He was still relatively unproven and it wasn’t clear if he could truly diagnose and read defenses. Going with him over somebody like Deshaun Watson who’d just won the national championship for Clemson or Patrick Mahomes who had started multiple seasons at Texas Tech and put up huge numbers was a major gamble.
Those fears have proven well-founded.
Trubisky showed promise early thanks in large part to his supreme athletic gifts. There was hope he was figuring it out. Then as defenses began to get the measure of what he did well, the truth came out. The 25-year old can indeed not read defenses. He’s slow to move through his progressions, gets fooled too often by complex coverages, and shows ongoing sloppiness with his fundamental. This leads to his persistent issues with overthrowing wide open receivers.
Pace had three choices in his lap and somehow picked the only wrong one. If people didn’t think the Bears were cursed at QB before, this is the latest proof. Yet the nightmare was only just beginning for the GM.
Just 24 hours later, he stumbled again.
Chicago held the 4th pick in the 2nd round. Nobody is certain what convinced them to eventually trade down, but it’s likely seeing two of the top offensive tackles, Ryan Ramczyk and Cam Robinson go in the few spots ahead of them was a catalyst. Pace moved down in a trade with Arizona who ended up selecting Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker. This dropped them to the #45 slot where they again took a calculated risk on an unproven player.
This time it was Adam Shaheen out of Ashland. While a physical specimen at 6’7 with legitimate speed for his size, Shaheen had feasted on Division II competition throughout his college career. If that weren’t enough, he was actually a late arrival to the football scene, having given up his college basketball career shortly before transferring to Ashland. So he was a raw talent who hadn’t cut his teeth against top competition. The Bears passed on Dalvin Cook and still had JuJu Smith-Schuster and Alvin Kamara available.
Not to mention George Kittle.
In 26 career games across three seasons, Shaheen has 26 catches for 249 yards and four touchdowns. A monumental disappointment in every sense. Those two draft picks, both at the highest end of their respective rounds in a talented class ended up being huge busts. Now here the Bears sit with the 29th ranked offense in the league. Sure there are some other reasons why the unit is struggling, but everything can be traced back to missing on those two players.
Proof again that if you’re going for quality over quantity in the draft, you better hit on those picks.
