Cubs Mailbag – How Does The Rotation Stack Up For 2019?

Dhruv Koul answers your questions in this week’s Cubs Mailbag. Follow him on Twitter @DhruvKoul to continue the conversation.

We’re in the middle of February and it’s been quite an eventful spring training period so far for the Chicago Cubs down in Mesa, Arizona.

From Theo Epstein’s brutally honest press conference about the offseason to Addison Russell’s optically awful press conference regarding his domestic violence suspension to Tom Ricketts’ confounding and aggravating press conference about multiple topics, it’s been a crazy time for the team and its fans.

Also, with news breaking that Manny Machado agreed to a 10-year, $300M contract with the San Diego Padres, all eyes now turn to Bryce Harper as the Cubs get set to play actual spring training baseball games in the next few days. The Cubs are still considered ‘linked to’ Harper, but the chances of landing him are remote.

To make matters more interesting (read: hilarious), PECOTA predicted that the Cubs would finish in last place in the NL Central with a 79-83 record. Yes, seriously.

Imagine thinking the Cubs are only going to win 79 games. Imagine justifying a "pReDiCtIvE mOdEl" that outputs such bullshit. pic.twitter.com/4gnLdpjhMM

— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) February 19, 2019

With that, let’s reach into this week’s Cubs Mailbag. Thank you to everyone who submitted questions — I always appreciate the participation!

Q: Thoughts on the rotation this year? — Kyle C.

The rotation is full of really good names: Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, and Jose Quintana. That is an EXCELLENT set of names to have in the rotation.

However, Lester is coming off a season where his peripherals were poor and it was clear he often got lucky during the season. Darvish is coming off his injury. Quintana has been hit or miss for the most part since coming from the White Sox, though I think he is better than average.

Hamels was outstanding coming from the Rangers after the trade deadline, and him returning is great for the rotation, though hopefully he is able to pick back up where he left off. Even if he regresses a bit (which is likely), he is still a plus addition to the rotation. And Hendricks is largely excellent, though he has started slowly before finding his groove later in the year.

They also have some depth with Tyler Chatwood reportedly fixing a mechanical issue in his delivery, Mike Montgomery being back, and some capable names in the minors who can come up and start in a pinch if needed.

My final take: The rotation has a chance to be flat out excellent or potentially combust. The reality is they will likely be somewhere in the middle, and if the Cubs’ offense can improve from their second half of 2018 showing, they should still be in very good shape.

Any chance the Cubs sneak through the back door and sign Bryce Harper

— Scott Friend (@scottfriend1) February 19, 2019

I mean, there’s certainly a chance. Especially because Theo Epstein reportedly asked Bryce Harper to check with the Cubs before making a decision. So it’s clear the Cubs are at least staying in touch and are interested in evaluating whether they can take him on when all is said and done with his recruiting process.

That said, I am not particularly hopeful that they will sign him. There have been way too many indications so far from Mesa that make it seem like the Cubs aren’t willing to spend more on free agents, no matter how good the investment could reasonably be. Tom Ricketts’ press conference further reduced any confidence in the Cubs being serious players.

So while there’s certainly a chance, the likelihood is strong that the Cubs are done adding big name free agents this offseason.

Q: What are your thoughts on the [Addison] Russell discussion with reporters? — Lori P.

This is all you really need to know:

Addison Russell sounds like robotic, ultra rehearsed, completely insincere garbage.

— Dhruv Koul (@DhruvKoul) February 15, 2019

I came away feeling worse and angrier about Addison Russell’s presence on the roster after that press conference. He emitted absolutely no remorse; instead, he just recycled a robotic set of statements throughout. It was terrible.

Q: Who has the most to prove this year? — Carrie L.

This is a loaded question. There are so many angles that one can take:

• Addison Russell — has he really reformed and become a better human being off the field? Or, you know, has he become a human being in general off the field?
• Yu Darvish — can he come back off his injury and pitch like the ace-level caliber guy we know he can?
• The whole offense — can it rebound from a horrendous second half stretch in 2018?
• Cole Hamels — can he keep up the level of his second half of 2018 into the new year?
• Jon Lester — were his 2018 peripherals indicative of a rough 2019 to come?

The list goes on. There really isn’t an easy answer to this question, unfortunately. The Cubs have a lot of questions, some more serious than others. But if the players can play in line with their career averages, the Cubs will be in good shape.