The Chicago Bears 3rd round pick would normally be looked at with considerable less enthusiasm going into this year. After all, the round hasn’t exactly been kind to the franchise dating all the way back to 2004. So many players came out with tons of promise but never really panned out into something more than a brief contributor.
Bernard Berrian was a fun deep threat for a few years. Dusty Dvoracek had loads of promise but chronic injury issues. Garrett Wolfe was great on special teams but useless on offense. Juaquin Iglesias and Jarron Gilbert were colossal failures. Major Wright and Chris Conte were serviceable. Brandon Hardin? Will Sutton? Hroniss Grasu? Jonathan Bullard?
All of them have offered little in the way of impact plays to the Bears. Now GM Ryan Pace has to hope he can change those fortunes. The team doesn’t have 1st or 2nd round choices at their disposal due to prior trades. This puts far greater importance on their 3rd rounder this time around. So how can they improve their chances of scoring a hit?
Chicago Bears 3rd round pick may be best served in the trenches
One interesting stat that tends to help in these situations is “hit rate.” Which position groups tend to have a greater chance of scoring good players in the 3rd round than others? To figure this out, I conducted some research. Scouring over the entire history of the NFL draft, I aimed to determine which position had the most Pro Bowl players produced in that round.
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The winner by the narrowest margin was the offensive line.
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OL – 41
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LB – 40
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DB – 37
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DL – 36
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RB – 33
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WR – 23
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TE – 17
Not only did the O-line produced 41 Pro Bowlers in the 3rd round, but they’ve also delivered seven Hall of Famers. Two more could be threats to join that group in the future. One being Baltimore Ravens guard Marshal Yanda and former Bears center Olin Kreutz. That’s right. Chicago scooped him up back in 1998. One of the best choices in the round the organization has ever made.
The key here though? The offensive line isn’t a pressing need
By re-signing Bobby Massie, every Bears starting position up front is secured for 2019. That means unless there’s a major talent who somehow drops to them, they will be looking elsewhere. Going off their list of likely needs entering this offseason, it’s far more likely they will be looking at defensive backs.
That took has done well in the 3rd round including three Hall of Famer with two more in John Lynch and Ronde Barber strong threats to get in. Former safety Dave Duerson arrived in Chicago in 1983, becoming a four-time Pro Bowl for the team. With both Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan being free agents, the odds are one of them could be gone next season.
This increases the odds they’ll be looking for possible replacements early in the draft.
