Interesting Trade Proposal: Corey Kluber To The Cubs?

Yu Darvish’s recovery from his elbow injury is right on track and he should start throwing again in a couple weeks. Jon Lester still has two more years left on his contract, while the Cubs just picked up Cole Hamels’ 2019 option, and Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks aren’t costing the team much. So, on paper the Cubs should feel pretty good about their starting rotation, but what if they could add a two-time Cy Young Award winner?

ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield put together a list of trades they’d like to see happen this offseason and one of them involves the Cubs getting Corey Kluber from Cleveland.

Again, these are simply hypothetical, but in theory can be realistic.

Anyway, the big piece in this trade proposal going to Cleveland would be Kyle Schwarber from the Cubs and either Ian Happ or Albert Almora Jr.

Via ESPN.

From the Cubs’ perspective, you get three years of Kluber’s deal (three years, $40.5 million remaining including a couple of club options) which should have all sorts of surplus value. Kluber is as consistent as any pitcher in the big leagues. While he’s working on a streak of five straight seasons with over 200 innings pitched, I view that as a proof of durability rather than a red flag. His velocity dropped off a little last season, but as he has increasingly worked in his cutter — and given up his dynamic curveball — I’m confident he’ll have the arsenal to head up the Chicago rotation for at least the duration of his contract. He’s just a special pitcher. Kluber’s deal is cheap enough that the Cubs should still be able to bolster their depth via free agency as the winter progresses.

The Indians’ end of this deal begins with Schwarber, but of course, that would just be a jumping off point, especially because the Indians can leverage all of the Kluber suitors against each other. Schwarber at the very least can be counted on to be a three-win player, such as he was last season, with the potential for a lot more. His left-handed power bat is a great fit for Progressive Field, and in the American League the Indians can find work for him in left field, first base and at designated hitter. In addition to Schwarber, the Cubs could add either Ian Happ or Albert Almora Jr., with my presumption being that Cleveland would place a premium on Happ’s versatility.

For all the shit that fans talk about Schwarber, he just had a 3.2 fWAR season and since making his MLB debut back in 2015, he ranks fourth on the Cubs in home runs and walks. He missed basically all of 2016, and still ranks that high among all Cubs players during that time period.

Meanwhile, Happ still has plenty of upside, but obviously he’s coming off a disappointing 2018. And despite the frustrating up and down year for Happ, he still had a solid .353 OBP. Happ is still under team control for five more seasons, while Schwarber has three years of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent.

Kluber’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2014, throwing at least 203.2 innings each of the past five seasons. His ERA has been below 3 for the last two years and has two Cy Young Awards under his belt. His contract is relatively cheap for his production, but Cleveland is looking to shed some payroll and they just gave Carlos Carrasco a contract extension, so Kluber will still be shopped around.

However, several more things would have to follow for this to work. Let’s just assume in this hypothetical that it’s Schwarber and Happ because Albert Almora Jr. doesn’t really give other teams too much value compared to those two. Anyway, that means the Cubs are losing two outfielders for a roster that was already looking to improve there!

Oh, and again Schwarber, despite not living up to the high expectations, was still one of the better hitters on the team.

So, for one the Cubs would have to sign an outfielder to replace Schwarber and Happ. Could that be Bryce Harper?

Well, Theo Epstein said they’d have to get creative to add significant payroll this offseason and I guess that brings us back to the starting rotation. If the Cubs get Kluber they’ll have six starters. Would that mean they’d then trade Quintana because of his team-friendly deal and pair him with a bad contract like Tyler Chatwood to clear some payroll?

So yeah, trading away Schwarber and Happ for Kluber is interesting, but there would be more complications and more moving parts for the Cubs to make it work.

The Winter Meetings start this weekend in Las Vegas and that’s when things will really pick up.