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A year ago I reacted to these predictions and I said there was no chance in hell the Cubs were going to give Yu Darvish a six-year deal, worth $160 million. And well, technically I was right, as the Cubs signed him to a six year contract worth $126 million. Sooooo, bargain!
Anyway, MLB Trade Rumors has released its annual rankings of the top-50 free agents, along with predictions of where they will sign and for how much. They nailed their Darvish prediction last year, so who do they have as the top free agent going to the Cubs?
Bryce Harper? Manny Machado? Maybe one of the top relievers?
Nope. MLBTR has the Cubs missing out on the top free agents and settling for plan B. It’s not too bad, but considering the anticipation for this offseason, even a former MVP won’t bring the same level of excitement to the North Side.
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MLBTR has the 11th ranked free agent, outfielder Andrew McCutchen signing with the Cubs.
11. Andrew McCutchen – Cubs. Three years, $45MM. Aside from Harper, Brantley and McCutchen are the best corner outfielders on the free-agent market. McCutchen, 32, is several years removed from his MVP-caliber stretch with the Pirates but remains a very good hitter. After nine seasons as the Pirates’ center fielder, McCutchen was traded to the Giants and switched to right field. After hitting only three home runs in the season’s first two months, Cutch went on to hit .259/.374/.447 in his final 452 plate appearances for the Giants and Yankees. He could fit with the Cubs, Indians, Rays, Cardinals, Braves, White Sox, or Phillies.
Fine, I guess.
McCutchen won the 2013 NL MVP with the Pirates and then finished third in voting the next year, while posting even better numbers. Like the description says, he’s not the same player, but he should be solid. In 2018, he put up a .368 OBP, which is close to his career .378 OBP.
But again, if the Cubs do sign him and don’t even make a run at Harper or Machado, then it’s going to be disappointing.
And on that note, here’s what MLBTR wrote in regards to the Cubs chances of signing Harper.
We see the Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Yankees, Giants, and Cardinals as the most likely suitors. The Cubs were the pick here until the very end, and they are still a good match, but payroll concerns pushed us to switch to the Dodgers.
So, they did have Harper going to the Cubs, but changed the prediction as speculation continues among the media that the Cubs won’t be big spenders this offseason.
Sources: The Cubs have financial concerns that may limit their ability and motivation to make a huge splash this winter. Looking at what the Cole Hamels deal means for Bryce Harper: https://t.co/R5BMkS7Nm7
— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) November 2, 2018
I discussed that on Friday, calling it complete bullshit if Tom Ricketts makes the excuse of not having the money to go after a star like Harper.
Hopefully that speculation is dead wrong and the Cubs do end up making a serious effort to sign Harper or even Manny Machado.
By the way, MLBTR’s prediction for Harper’s contract with the Dodgers?
14 years, $420 million
The length seems too long, but the average of $30 million per year might be a tad low.
The predictions also have the Cubs re-signing pitcher Jesse Chavez to a two-year contract worth $10 million.
Oh, and a couple more things to consider about the speculation of the Cubs not being big spenders in free agency. First, Tom Ricketts talking about being aggressive for players back in May.
This was Tom Ricketts back in May. This was talking about aggressively pursuing Machado via trade and then maybe again in free agency.
Well, time to let Theo and Jed do their job, Tom. pic.twitter.com/AFtbrx4n46
— Aldo Soto (@AldoSoto21) November 3, 2018
Second, Theo Epstein on adding another big player even with the big contract of Darvish from last offseason.
This is what Theo Epstein said after signing Yu Darvish last February. Does it say that they have immediate flexibility for Harper? No. But it does suggest that signing him is a priority, and it says the word “flexible” twice. pic.twitter.com/Hcp6SgjZHE
— Ryan (@RyanQDavis) November 3, 2018
Sure, the Cubs did add Cole Hamels and his $20 million salary to the 2019 payroll, but that shouldn’t be the difference in not going after one of the best players available in free agency.
I guess we’ll find out over the next few months.
