Saturday, April 20, 2024

Why Khalil Mack Isn’t As Good As Von Miller. He’s Better

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I know I’m going to get a ton of heat if Denver Broncos fans catch wind of this (and we all know they will). So let me be clear. I am not in any way saying that Von Miller is an inferior football player. He is absolutely not. He’s a superstar and likely going into the Hall of Fame not long after he retires. This is more me saying Miller is a 99 and Khalil Mack is a perfect 100. Both are great but one’s ever so slightly better than the other.

The easiest way to make a comparison is through the numbers, right? So let’s start out with a straightforward one. Miller has logged a total of 3,285 pass rush snaps in his career. During that span, he has pressured (sack/hit/hurried) the quarterback 545 times. That’s an average of one pressure every 6.02 rush snaps. Mack has logged 2,169 rush snaps with 313 pressures. That’s an average of one every 6.92 snaps.

On the surface that seems like an open-shut case. When it comes to the primary job for the two men, rushing the quarterback, Miller is a little better. Yet there is more to it than that. Such a slim margin of error can’t possibly present an accurate depiction. So I decided to dig deeper and came around to a reality not enough people have confronted.

How much (or little) backup the two have had in their careers.

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Von Miller has enjoyed an advantage Khalil Mack hasn’t:  HELP

One of the most understated parts of a pass rusher’s success is their supporting cast. Did they enjoy premium conditions or have to do it all themselves? To find an answer, I looked into the recent histories of the Oakland and Denver defenses. Since 2014 here are the total number of pressures each edge rush and defensive line positions had excluding those provided by both Miller and Mack:

  • Broncos = 749
  • Raiders = 607

In other words, Miller was playing with a far superior supporting cast. One that produced a staggering 142 more pressures on the quarterback. It’s little wonder he’s been so dominant. The Broncos have done a great job of making life easier for him. Just look at the cast of Pro Bowl players he’s played with up front since he was drafted in 2011.

  • Elvis Dumervil (2011-2012)
  • Shaun Phillips (2013)
  • DeMarcus Ware (2014-2016)
  • Malik Jackson (2012-2015)

By comparison, Mack has played with just two in his career and they both came with significant asterisks.

  • Justin Tuck (2014)
  • Aldon Smith (2015)

Tuck was 31-years old when he arrived in 2014 and it became clear why the New York Giants let him go during that season. As for Smith, he was only in Oakland for nine games in 2015 before he got himself in trouble with the law again. Outside of them, the best Mack has played with is Bruce Irvin, a former 1st round pick who has never topped eight sacks in his career. That can’t even compare to what Miller had.

One also can’t forget the coverage benefits

This also extends to the secondaries as well. There also Miller has enjoyed plenty of help from the moment he got to the league. In the early years, he had a Hall of Famer in cornerback Champ Bailey patrolling the back end. Not long after that Chris Harris Jr. arrived, followed closely by Aqib Talib. All became Pro Bowlers during their time there, providing excellent pass coverage.

Who did Mack have? D.J. Hayden? David Amerson? Sean Smith? T.J. Carrie? The only two decent players who did their jobs during his time there were Charles Woodson and Reggie Nelson, both of whom were safeties and long past their primes. In fact, the collective rating quarterbacks have had throwing against the Raiders cornerbacks since Mack’s rookie season was 99.68.

Sounds pretty bad, right?

It gets even worse when you realize the Broncos corners averaged out to 76.52 over that same span. So not only did Miller have superior rushers around him to prevent too many double teams, he also had superior coverage from his cornerbacks, providing that critical extra second to reach the quarterback.

Yet since 2014? Miller has just eight more sacks than Mack, and the latter was a rookie that first year. This should drive home how good of a player the Bears just secured. He’s not one of the best edge rushers in football. He can make a formidable case for being THE best edge rusher in football. Even over a man who won his team a Super Bowl a few years back like Miller.

Now he joins a defense that ranked in the top 10 last year. A defense that features legitimate rushers like Akiem Hicks and Leonard Floyd. A defense that got a 78.16 rating out of its cornerbacks in 2017. It’s okay for everybody to get excited. You can bet Mack sure as hell is. He’s never been in a situation like this before. One that Miller has enjoyed his entire career.

Just how much more dominant could he be? Quarterbacks aren’t anxious to find out.

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