Jordan Howard has become the focal point of the Chicago Bears offense the past two years. He set the rookie rushing record in franchise history and made the Pro Bowl in 2016. Then last year he became the first Bears back to ever top 1,000 yards his first two seasons. Nobody has proven more steady or reliable than him.
One would think the team is hoping to reward him for those efforts. Only there’s a problem. As this team continues to get better, they’ve begun to lock up several of their key pieces and this has eaten into their salary cap space. That might seem like a big issue, but it actually is. If the current timeline plays out as is, it’s possible the Bears may not be able to keep their running back for much longer.
Ironically enough the rumors of his exit this offseason due to scheme fit were wrong, but not because the Bears don’t want Howard. It’s becoming more and more likely that they can’t keep him. Not without sacrificing their ability to stay flexible in the future.
Jordan Howard contract may be squeezed out due to Mitch Trubisky
Mitch Trubisky’s rookie contract expires in 2020. Presuming they decide to use his 5th-year option, that would push it to 2021. However, the odds are negotiations would start before it gets to that point. So we’ll say he gets an extension done in 2020 before the season. If he pans out close to the extent the Bears hope, the odds are they’ll be paying him somewhere northing of $28 million a season, which is what Kirk Cousins currently makes.
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This creates an issue with Howard. Chicago already got done paying a number of its defensive stalwarts including Akiem Hicks, Kyle Fuller, and now Khalil Mack. Howard’s contract expires next season. If he delivers another 1,000-yard campaign, he’ll be in a position to demand top 5 money. As of now, that means at least over $8 million a year. It’s likely to go up once David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, and Ezekiel Elliott get their extensions.
That number could go north of $10 million a season since Todd Gurley is earning over $14 million on his deal. While Howard may be worth that, the harsh truth is if the Bears give it to him and then extend Trubisky anywhere close to the numbers mentioned earlier? Their cap flexibility would be gone. They would have six cap hits on their payroll that go north of $10 million along with Fuller, Hicks, Mack, and Robinson.
That would erase any hope of the Bears being aggressive in trades or free agency. Not ideal given how the NFL is set up these days. One of the reasons teams like New England thrive is because they’re able to part with players they consider a luxury in order to maintain cap health. Howard falls into this category.
Jordan Howard: *removes helmet* "lets f*cking go" pic.twitter.com/y0Ylmids1y
— Al (@TreyBizzy) September 24, 2017
So what will they do?
If they can’t pay Howard, they’re given two options. They can trade him during the 2019 offseason. Odds are if he plays well in 2018 he’ll have a strong market for his services. Or they can let him walk in free agency in 2020. If they don’t do any massive spending after that, they could get a compensatory draft pick back for him in 2021. Likely a 3rd rounder.
This is naturally not the solution most Bears fans want. Howard is a favorite for many reasons and deserves to be rewarded for his efforts. No doubt Pace love to do that since the running back is his best draft pick to date. That said, the harsh realities of football economics may make him a sacrificial lamb.
Facts are facts. Running backs are easier to replace in the NFL than any other position. Since 2000, a total of 31 running backs drafted in the 2nd round or later went to a Pro Bowl. Howard is among those. A further 16 went in the 4th round or later. It’s just impossible to argue. Teams can manufacture good, cheap running games if they have a good quarterback. If Trubisky pans out, that’s likely what the Bears will do.
